A recent report has revealed that over 20,000 individuals were either killed or injured in violent incidents across Nigeria between 2020 and 2024, highlighting the country’s worsening security crisis.

The report, published by the non-governmental organization Nextier, recorded 5,291 violent occurrences during this period, including 43 terrorist attacks and 1,306 bandit-related assaults in 2024 alone.

 Nextier’s Managing Partner, Dr. Ndubuisi Nwokolo, presented the findings at a press conference in Abuja on Wednesday, February 12. He stated that the data was sourced from the organization’s Violent Conflicts Database. Titled Mutations of Terror and Conflict, the report outlined several external influences that may shape Nigeria’s security landscape in 2025.

Among these factors are the ongoing war in Sudan, the spread of terrorist organizations in the Sahel, Nigeria’s growing diplomatic ties with France, electoral developments in neighboring countries, and Russia’s expanding influence in Africa.

The report also warned that illegal mining in the North West is fueling armed banditry, deepening lawlessness, and making the region more vulnerable to exploitation.

Additionally, the report highlighted a sharp increase in kidnappings, with 11,002 abductions documented between June 2020 and December 2024. The North West was identified as the most affected region.

Conflicts between farmers and herders remain a significant security concern, particularly in the North Central and North West regions.

According to the report, 359 violent clashes between these groups resulted in 2,347 deaths from 2020 to 2024. In 2024 alone, 61 incidents led to 467 fatalities, with nearly 90% occurring in the North Central region.

The report also detailed other forms of violence, including cult-related clashes, communal disputes, armed attacks, extrajudicial killings, and violent demonstrations. Between 2020 and 2024, there were 2,988 cult-related incidents, causing 695 deaths. The highest number of such cases occurred in 2022, followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024.

Security Recommendations

Nextier’s report urged the Nigerian government to strengthen both military and non-military strategies to combat terrorism and banditry. It emphasized the need to better equip security forces and ensure that increased defense spending leads to meaningful security improvements.

Furthermore, the report raised concerns about the emergence of a new terrorist group, Lakurawa, which could further escalate violence in 2025. It recommended that the government enhance regulatory measures and intelligence-gathering efforts to counter this threat.

Addressing secessionist unrest, the report suggested that the government’s handling of Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the banned Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), could significantly impact separatist movements. It proposed that his release could help distinguish Biafra activists from violent criminals.

Looking ahead, Nextier predicted that the prevalence of kidnapping, farmer-herder conflicts, and political instability in 2025 would depend on the government’s ability to implement livestock reforms, manage ethnic tensions, and oversee upcoming elections effectively.

The report also pointed to rising tensions between Nigeria’s Igbo and Yoruba communities, political rivalries in Rivers State, and the spread of hate speech as potential destabilizing factors.