WASHINGTON – A pivotal special election is set to take place in a predominantly Democratic district near West Des Moines, where residents will choose a new state senator on Tuesday. This election holds the potential for Iowa Republicans to reclaim a supermajority in the Senate, thereby tightening their control over state governance.

Contenders for the seat include Democrat Renee Hardman from West Des Moines, and Republican Lucas Loftin from Clive. Hardman, who currently serves on the West Des Moines City Council and holds the position of mayor pro tempore, faces off against Loftin, an employee at an environmental and outdoor services company. They aim to fill the vacancy left by the late Democratic state Sen. Claire Celsi, who passed away on October 6.

The Republican Party currently maintains a significant 33-16 lead in the Iowa Senate, just one seat short of the 34 needed for a supermajority. This majority would enable them to override gubernatorial vetoes, initiate special sessions, approve specific financial allocations, and confirm certain appointments without opposition, as per the Iowa Secretary of the Senate. The GOP already enjoys a supermajority in the Iowa House of Representatives. Previously, Democrats had disrupted the GOP’s dominance in an August special election.

The 16th Senate district, encompassing West Des Moines, Windsor Heights, and Clive in the southwest of Polk County, also includes one precinct in eastern Dallas County.

In 2024, Celsi secured her third term with a commanding 69% of the vote. During the presidential election, Democrat Kamala Harris captured approximately 58% of the district’s votes, while Republican Donald Trump garnered about 41%, winning just one of the district’s 23 precincts. Interestingly, Celsi also won this precinct, although it was her weakest showing with around 61% support.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request and pay for a recount. Candidates do not have to pay for recounts when the margin is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes, whichever is larger. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:

Special election day

The special election for Iowa state Senate District 16 will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the state Senate special election. It is the only contest on the ballot.

Who gets to vote?

Any voter registered in state Senate District 16 may participate in the special election.

What do registration and turnout look like?

As of Dec. 1, there were nearly 45,000 registered voters in state Senate District 16. About 37% were Democrats, about 30% were Republicans and about 32% were not registered with any party.

Turnout for the last District 16 race was about 67% of registered voters in the 2024 general election, boosted by the presidential race at the top of the ballot. About 62% of District 16 voters cast their ballots in-person on Election Day, while about 38% voted absentee.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election for District 16, the AP first reported results at 9:22 p.m. ET, or 22 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 11 p.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.