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The area of interest off our east coast is given a low shot at garnering the first name of our hurricane season. If it were to pull off a Hail Mary and further organize as it scrapes up against our eastern shores, the first name would be Andrea to open up the hurricane season.
However, generally speaking, when these areas of tropical/subtropical energy flare up especially close to home, regardless of development we’re talking a lot of water attempting to pile up and fast.
This could cause issues for your morning commute tomorrow.
We’d anticipate travel delays or perhaps leaving home just a little sooner than usual as pockets of heavier downpours could be traversing interior Central Florida. If you reside right up along the I-95 corridor, things could be a bit choppier there.
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Computer models are set that the east coast of the peninsula will likely accrue the heaviest rainfall as our area of interest attempts to spin into a more organized, but broad, low pressure. The upper level low helping to further instigate a bit more widespread showers and storms over the southeast will also continue to amplify our local pattern a bit.
It does seem the trend favors isolated heavier showers during the early morning hours of tomorrow, before we escalate a bit later into the day to a more widespread sheet of rain blanketing much of us in Central Florida.
Weather Prediction Center has also highlighted the entirety of the state for a level one risk of excessive rainfall accumulation. Since the steering pattern for both our surface feature off to the east, and the upper level bowling ball low over the eastern Gulf, is rather stagnant at the moment, neither of these areas are in a hurry to get moving.
As early as tonight closer to 8 p.m., conditions will start to go downhill. On radar now, you can see the banding wrapping around our broad counter-clockwise spin parked almost directly overhead.
Before the sun comes up, a majority of our stronger storms will hug the east coast. After sunset, the surface of the Earth rapidly cools, pending the amounts of leftover cloud cover we’re dealing with from earlier in the day.
Given the subtropical to tropical nature of our storm system over the water, at night our heaviest rainfall bouts will stay right along the eastern periphery of Brevard, Volusia, and Flagler counties.
Then, later into the morning we’ll see some shrouds of rain managing to sneak inland.
It isn’t until evening Wednesday, during your trip home as you round out your day, things will start to go progressively downhill until a large majority of us are sitting underneath consistent rainfall.
This is because we’ll finally start to see some forward progress in our surface low over the Gulf Stream, and the upper level spin over the eastern Gulf will also be drawn in by a change in the jet stream back up to our north over the Greater United States.
That will help to tug a line of heavier rains up from the tropics, the western Caribbean where the Central American Gyre is attempting to take shape, as well as all the leftover moisture still present over Cuba, the Florida straits, and the Eastern Gulf.
Right now where we stand, the most inconvenient and detrimental weather will start to build up middle of the day tomorrow, between the hours of 3pm and 6pm. This is right on cue with afternoon rush hour across our area, so plan accordingly, drive safely, and maintain your situational awareness.
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