SAO PAULO – Brazil’s October presidential election could determine the Amazon rainforest’s future. The winner will govern a country that contains roughly 60% of the world’s largest tropical forest—an ecosystem considered essential to the global climate.
As Brazil heads toward Sunday’s first-round vote, the leading candidates are Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is pursuing a fourth, nonconsecutive term.
Amazon conservation has played only a limited role in this year’s campaign. Even so, the candidates offer sharply contrasting approaches to managing the rainforest. Climate and conservation specialists warn that a Flávio Bolsonaro victory could undo the deforestation-control measures Lula reinstated after returning to office in 2023.
During Jair Bolsonaro’s 2019-2022 presidency, Amazon deforestation climbed by about 60%, with more than 45,000 square kilometers (17,400 square miles) of forest cleared, according to official figures. Under Lula, deforestation has declined 45%, falling to its lowest level in more than 10 years.
Lula’s Amazon agenda could meet resistance in conservative Congress
Lula would face opposition from a conservative Congress in which the agribusiness sector wields considerable influence. His platform, however, largely builds on policies focused on cutting emissions and channeling financial support to tropical forests.
Flávio Bolsonaro has promised to eliminate illegal deforestation by 2029, one year earlier than Brazil’s existing target. Lula’s proposal is more ambitious: achieving zero net deforestation by 2030, which would require offsetting all forest loss—whether legal or illegal—with restoration.
Deforestation and other land-use changes are Brazil’s biggest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming. The Amazon is particularly important because it stores enormous quantities of carbon dioxide and releases atmospheric moisture that influences weather patterns well beyond South America.
Sen. Bolsonaro has offered few specific details about his Amazon platform. He has said generally that his administration would intensify the fight against environmental crime while encouraging conservation.
“Flávio Bolsonaro is a defender of the environment and of those who preserve standing forests and clean rivers,” his campaign said in a statement to The Associated Press. The campaign added that his government would establish economic incentives to support conservation and forest restoration.
Sen. Bolsonaro says he does not believe climate change is real
In an August interview with Jornal Nacional, Brazil’s most-watched television news program, Bolsonaro said he did not believe in climate change, but instead believed in extreme weather events.
“Those are cyclical events,” Bolsonaro said. “The best way to address environmental issues is what we did during the (Jair) Bolsonaro administration: approve a basic sanitation framework to combat the sewage flowing past your front door.”
Márcio Astrini, executive director of the Climate Observatory, a coalition of environmental organizations, said deforestation could rise again if Bolsonaro followed his father’s example by dismantling enforcement systems and reducing environmental protections.
“The risk we face is that Brazil could move away from a positive environmental agenda toward a position more similar to the one now adopted by the United States—one of climate denial,” Astrini said.
Experts say the most consequential word in Bolsonaro’s pledge may be “illegal.” They warn that his administration could weaken environmental safeguards and broaden the areas where forest clearing is permitted, allowing deforestation to increase while still technically meeting the target.
“Given his long history of advocating weaker environmental protections, there is concern that activities now considered illegal could simply be legalized and no longer subject to enforcement,” said Taciana Stec, a climate policy specialist at Talanoa, a Brazilian think tank.
Amazon landowners are generally required to retain 80% of the native vegetation on their properties. In 2019, Bolsonaro co-sponsored a bill that would have eliminated the requirement, calling it a barrier to development.
The measure was abandoned after agribusiness leaders objected. They feared it would hurt the reputation of Brazilian soy and beef in international markets increasingly concerned about products linked to deforestation.
Sen. Bolsonaro pledges stronger enforcement, but questions remain
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Bolsonaro’s campaign tapped Marcelo Donnini Freire, an environmental manager who held senior positions during the final months of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, to help shape its environmental platform.
In September, Freire met with environmental organizations, including the Brazilian Coalition on Climate, Forests and Agriculture, which advocates for Brazilian leadership in the low-carbon economy.
A person who has been part of internal campaign discussions but is not authorized to speak publicly said a Bolsonaro administration would be unlikely to change current deforestation restrictions on private properties. Such a proposal would face opposition from export-oriented agribusiness and risk undermining investments in carbon projects and biofuels.
Pressure for increased clearing could persist, however, among smaller producers with little access to export markets or carbon-credit revenue.
Although Bolsonaro’s campaign told AP he would prioritize technology-driven enforcement against wildfires and environmental crimes, he has campaigned across the Amazon on promises to loosen environmental regulations.
One enforcement tool allows authorities to impose sanctions for illegal clearing based solely on satellite monitoring. Jair Bolsonaro halted the policy, and Lula restored it in 2023. A fast-tracked bill backed by Brazil’s agribusiness caucus would weaken it. Flávio Bolsonaro did not say whether he would preserve the measure.
Some Bolsonaro allies have been fined for environmental violations and campaigned against enforcement. News outlet Sumauma found that candidates across the Amazon had accumulated about $33 million in environmental fines, most of them from parties aligned with the Bolsonaros.
Far-right candidate pledges to open Indigenous lands for farming, mining
At a June rally in Belem, which hosted last year’s U.N. climate summit, Bolsonaro vowed to “modernize” environmental laws and ease licensing for farming, cattle ranching and mining. In August, he campaigned in the Estacao Parecis Indigenous Territory in Mato Grosso, pledging greater autonomy for Indigenous communities.
“They will decide what happens on their lands,” Bolsonaro told the Market Makers podcast. “If they want to farm or lease their territory, they will be free to do so. If they want to authorize mining on their lands, they will be able to do that as well.”
“All of this will be done responsibly and with environmental safeguards, while respecting their wishes,” he added.
Indigenous territories are among the Amazon’s best-preserved areas but face growing pressure from farmers and illegal gold mining. Bolsonaro did not say whether his administration would establish deforestation rules for Indigenous lands.
Flávio Bolsonaro pledges may resonate with some Amazon voters
In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro carried five of the nine states in Brazil’s Legal Amazon. Breno Rodrigues de Messias Leite, a political scientist at the Federal University of Amazonas, said Flávio Bolsonaro’s promises to loosen environmental protections may appeal to voters in the region who see the rules as overly restrictive and burdensome to businesses.
“Nobody here thinks, ‘There’s a forest over there, let me go cut it down,’” Leite said. “But one idea is deeply ingrained in the minds of the people who live here. First, they feel isolated. Second, when the state shows up, it comes with a heavy hand, with sanctions rather than with infrastructure.”
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Leite added, he could pursue policies that result in environmental damage. “He will have to respond to his electoral base, which is precisely rural producers. That sector wants further loosening of environmental regulations.”
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