China has successfully met its initial pledge to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans from the United States. However, questions linger about the stability of the trade deal announced in October, especially in light of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies. U.S. farmers continue to grapple with significant production costs, adding to the uncertainty.

Earlier this month, President Trump announced plans to levy 25% tariffs on any nation purchasing from Iran, a move that includes China. Additionally, he recently threatened a 10% tariff on eight major European allies unless they support his controversial bid to acquire Greenland.

Such rapid shifts in trade policy raise concerns over the sustainability of the agreement with China. Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, warns that these developments could endanger China’s commitment to buying 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually for the next three years.

“The introduction of these new tariffs raises critical questions about the agreement’s validity,” Hart commented. “Are we looking at a potential collapse, or does the deal still hold firm? That’s the conundrum we’re facing now.”

Last summer, Beijing halted purchases of U.S. soybeans amidst its trade conflict with Washington. However, after a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, a truce was reached, prompting China to resume soybean imports from American farmers.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the purchasing milestone China has met in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday from the sidelines of a major economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, where Bessent met with his Chinese counterpart, Vice President He Lifeng. Bessent said China remains committed.

“He told me that just this week they completed their soybean purchases, and we’re looking forward to next year’s 25 million tons,” Bessent said. “They did everything they said they were going to do.”

Last fall, preliminary data from the Department of Agriculture cast doubts on whether China would live up to the agreement because it was slow to begin purchasing American soybeans and there is a lag before the purchases show up in the official numbers.

On Tuesday, the USDA data showed that China had bought more than 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans by Jan. 8, and its daily reports indicated that China placed several more orders since then, ranging from 132,000 tons to more than 300,000 tons.

China has shifted much of its soybean purchases over to Brazil and Argentina in recent years to diversify its sources and find the cheapest deals. Last year, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports, while the U.S. share was down to 21%, World Bank data shows.

Trump is planning to send roughly $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers to help them withstand the trade war, but farmers say the aid won’t solve all their problems as they continue to deal with the soaring costs of fertilizer, seeds and labor that make it hard to turn a profit right now. Soybean farmers will get $30.88 per acre while corn farmers will receive $44.36 per acre. Another crop hit hard when China stopped buying was sorghum, and those farmers will get $48.11 per acre. The amounts are based on a USDA formula on the cost of production.

That and uncertainty about trade markets and how much farmers will receive for their crops has even some of the most optimistic farmers worried, said Cory Walters, who is an associate professor in the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Department of Agricultural Economics. Soybean prices jumped up above $11.50 per bushel after the agreement was announced, but the price has since fallen to about $10.56 per bushel on Tuesday. So prices are close to where they were a year ago and aren’t high enough to cover most farmers’ costs.

“Everything is changing — the land rental market, the fertilizer market, the seed market and it’s all pinching the farmer when they go to do their cash flows. The ability to make a decision is tougher now because of all the uncertainty in the market,” Walters said.

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Funk reported from Omaha, Nebraska. Associated Press writers Didi Tang and Fatima Hussein contributed from Washington.