Pressure on lawmakers to reach a deal to end the government shutdown is expected to rise this week with the prospect that workers will begin to lose paychecks, including members of the military.

Republicans and Democrats have dug in on the shutdown and are showing few signs of compromising, but the prospect of being blamed for lost pay in past shutdowns has been a pressure point leading to progress.

President Trump on Saturday directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to pay troops during the shutdown by using previously appropriated funds, seeking to sidestep the issue after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he would not bring the House back to vote on a stand-alone bill on military pay.

Johnson argues the House has already passed legislation to fund the government that would pay the military in the form of a stopgap funding bill, and that a stand-alone bill would take Democrats off the hook.

But Trump, perhaps not wanting to get any blamed for the loss of military pay, said in a post on Truth Social that Hegseth should use “all available funds to get our Troops PAID on October 15th.”

“We have identified funds to do this, and Secretary Hegseth will use them to PAY OUR TROOPS,” Trump said.

The Defense Department identified “approximately $8 billion of unobligated research development testing and evaluation funds (RDTE) from the prior fiscal year that will be used to issue mid-month paychecks to service members in the event the funding lapse continues past Oct. 15,” a department official told The Hill on Saturday.

Even if the military pay goes through, however, other workers are going to start feeling the pinch.

Federal workers were paid Friday, but only through Sept. 30, meaning many lost four days of pay. The workers who received partial paychecks include air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration employees critical for keeping the nation’s airports running.

Plenty of observers think the pay pressure will get lawmakers closer to moving to a deal, even if it doesn’t happen immediately.

“When the threat comes, they all say, ‘OK, now we have to negotiate.’ … When it actually happens will be the time when they all say, ‘OK, now we actually have to get in a room and negotiate,’” said Jonathan Kott, a longtime top aide to Democratic-turned-Independent former Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.).

“You can hold out for as long as you want, but the second you can’t go home and the second you’re getting yelled at by your constituents, you then are forced to say, ‘OK, now I have to sit in a room, now I have to figure out a compromise, now I have to work on a deal on opening the government and helping millions of Americans afford health care,’” Kott said. “Just saying ‘no’ doesn’t work anymore.”

If lawmakers are worried about that prospect, they aren’t showing it. Leaders remain at loggerheads over how to proceed, with rank-and-file negotiations making little headway so far. 

The two sides have continued to talk past each other. Democrats have voted seven times to block the GOP’s “clean” funding bill through late November, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) loudly declaring that every passing day is a political winner for his party in its push for an extension of enhanced health care subsidies.

Republicans have pleaded for five members of the Democratic caucus to join the three who have already crossed party lines to back a reopening in recent weeks, but have seen their calls stonewalled as the remaining 44 Democrats have remained united. 

Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) devoted much of their attention Friday to the ramifications of the shutdown, seeking to put the pressure on Democrats for the prospect of military members not getting paid. One reason the 35-day shutdown during Trump’s first term lasted so long was that the Pentagon was funded.

Thune on Friday predicted Trump’s move on Saturday to an extent, saying he expected the White House to step in to potentially use some of the $150 billion in Defense funds as part of the party’s “big, beautiful bill” to pay the troops. 

“My expectation is, yes, [the administration’s] going to have to start making some decisions about how to move money around, which agencies and departments are going to be impacted, which programs are going to be impacted, which employees are going to be impacted,” Thune told reporters. “That’s what a shutdown does. You put the administration and this presidency in a position where they’re going to have to make some tough decisions.”

Trump and his allies are doing everything they can to put the pressure on Democrats.

On Friday, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought announced “reductions in force” were taking place across numerous departments and agencies after holding off on them at the behest of congressional Republicans. 

But that may just be leading Democrats to dig in. Federal employees have been under siege from Trump for much of the year, and both layoffs and the threats of more layoffs throughout the year have left many grassroots Democrats arguing their party needs to dig in and fight.

“Nobody’s forcing Trump and Vought to do this. They don’t have to do it; they want to,” Schumer said in a statement. “They’re callously choosing to hurt people. … This is deliberate chaos.” 

“Here’s what’s worse: Republicans would rather see thousands of Americans lose their jobs than sit down and negotiate with Democrats to reopen the government,” he continued. “The way forward is simple: stop the attacks, come to the table, negotiate, and reopen the government. Until Republicans get serious, they own this — every job lost, every family hurt, every service gutted is because of their decisions.”

Air traffic controllers are a major wild card in the shutdown. They prompted widespread delays at airports in recent days after some called in sick early in the week.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy revealed that more than half of the delays across the country were due to air traffic controller issues. A “sick-out” of 10 controllers essentially forced Trump to end the 2019 shutdown after major disruptions at key airports across the East Coast. 

Still, some aides do not think those outside pressure points will ultimately force either Democrats or the GOP to move.

“You never know. The president may say something off-message again and, all of the sudden, our side gives up. I think it’s going to be an internally driven situation,” one Senate GOP aide said. 

“[The Democratic] base is so rabidly anti-Trump right now. They can do whatever they want. They are the party of government,” they continued, noting those government workers are not putting the heat on them to end the shutdown at this point. 

“We’re observing a new and, frankly, broken incentive structure at play here,” they added.