ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on the northern Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development later this week.

As of Sunday’s 8 a.m. update, the chances are low — 0% in the next two days and just 20% over the next seven days—but that could change.

Here’s what we’re watching: A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Atlantic and swing across Central Florida early this week.

That’s going to bring increased rain chances, especially through midweek.

After that, the system could move into the Gulf, where the atmosphere looks a bit more favorable for tropical development — and it could take on tropical characteristics.

Whether it develops or not, we’re looking at a soggy week ahead.

• 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected across much of Central Florida and parts of the north-central Gulf Coast.

• Some spots could see even higher totals, which raises the risk of localized flash flooding, especially later in the week.