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ORLANDO, Fla. – A good evening to you Central Florida, or good Sunday morning if you happen to find this article when you wake up tomorrow morning.
Gabrielle continues to spin out there in the Atlantic basin, getting better and better organized as time continues to pass.
This storm is very resilient, and has bounced back from very hostile conditions early on its lifespan to now take on the look of a symmetrical and quickly strengthening tropical system.
In fact, if you were to glance at the visible satellite of the tropical storm earlier today, you could actually see a brief pin-hole style eye show itself when the sun was highest in the sky.
I do foresee this becoming a hurricane no later than tomorrow, as does the latest forecast from National Hurricane Center also suggests.
Sustained winds in the center as of the 5 p.m. advisory keep it at 65 mph. Hurricane Hunter recon crews were within the storm earlier today, and did manage to find a structure a bit more impressive than satellite let on to.
I want to note, this advisory will be updating momentarily depending on when you’re checking out this article on our site. Again, I expect this to be a hurricane very soon, and could happen with the 11 p.m. update. The end game for us in Central Florida though remains the same.
By tomorrow morning, Hurricane Center does believe this will assume Category 1 intensity, with a peak intensity for the time being of a mid-level category two as it pinwheels away from Bermuda and the rest of us in the United States.
That’s the key takeaway with this current named storm – eye candy for us meteorologists and no cause for concern for anyone just about everywhere.
The Azores will have to watch as Gabrielle makes an approach from the west, as it is still forecast to be a hurricane as it comes in about 5-7 days from now.
We’re also still tracking another area of interest, given the trademark 0/20 formation chance by NHC. No chance for development within the next two days, and only a 20 percent shot for now within the next week.
Computer models are very back and forth with this tropical wave, and a second one just out ahead of this one which was previously highlighted for potential development. NHC has dropped that lead wave as it heads towards the Lesser Antilles of the eastern Caribbean.
Both of these features are very interesting, especially with the oscillating we’ve seen in computer model guidance. Long-range ensembles still hint at a low potential for the leading wave headed for the Caribbean to spin up as it moves closer to the United States. But confidence remains on the lower end because we can’t seem to hold a credible or persistent model signal.
For the wave currently tagged by NHC, guidance is also on the fence as to when this develops and if it does. But regardless, given we’re in the busiest month of the hurricane season historically speaking, we’ll be tracking every little cluster of tropical showers and storms for the chance at trying to develop.
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