In Conakry, Guineans are heading to the polls this Sunday to choose a new president, marking the nation’s first election since a coup in 2021. Political analysts suggest that with the opposition significantly weakened, the current junta leader, Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, is poised for victory.

This electoral event is the climax of a transitional journey that began when Doumbouya overthrew President Alpha Condé four years ago. Since then, Doumbouya has been accused of suppressing the main opposition and stifling dissent, leaving him with little significant competition among the eight other presidential hopefuls.

Despite its wealth in natural resources, particularly as the leading global exporter of bauxite, which is essential for aluminum production, Guinea faces stark economic challenges. According to the World Food Program, over half of its 15 million citizens endure severe poverty and food insecurity.

For many young Guineans, this election represents a beacon of hope. Idrissa Camara, an 18-year-old from Conakry, expressed his aspirations for change, having been unemployed since earning his university degree five years ago. “I’m forced to do odd jobs to survive,” he shared, voicing his desire for the vote to enhance both living standards and quality of life in Guinea.

This election is part of a broader trend across Africa, where numerous countries have recently experienced military coups. In at least ten nations, soldiers have seized control, citing failures in governance and security by the elected officials they replaced.

“This election will open a new page in Guinea’s history and mark the country’s return to the league of nations,” said Guinea political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. “Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favorite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been sidelined and the General Directorate of Elections, the body that oversees the presidential election, is under the supervision of the government,” he added.

In addition to a weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say Guinea has since the coup seen civil society leaders silenced, critics abducted and the press censored. More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in a move authorities claimed was to “clean up the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.

A total of nine candidates are contesting the election, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea party, who was education minister under Condé.

Two opposition candidates, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile.

While Baldé has hinged his campaign on promises of governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth, Doumbouya has built his around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power four years ago.

The junta’s most important project has been the Simandou iron ore project, a 75% Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit which began production last month after decades of delays.

Authorities say that a national development plan tied to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.

“In four years, he (Doumbouya) has connected Guinean youth to information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image in the capital of Conakry, as he cited digital skills training programs put in place by the authorities.

About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.

In Conakry, 22-year-old student Issatou Bah said he is still undecided about whether to vote in the election.

“This is the third time I’ve voted in Guinea, hoping things will change. But nothing has changed,” said Bah, adding that he hopes the election will improve “this country that has everything but struggles to take off.”