ABIDJAN – In the bustling streets of Abidjan, Placide Konan is using his talent for slam poetry to voice his opposition to President Alassane Ouattara’s pursuit of a fourth term in Ivory Coast’s upcoming election on Saturday.

At 33, Konan, like many in the Ivorian capital, is disillusioned by the prevailing economic challenges. Despite Ivory Coast’s status as a key economic player in West Africa and the leading global producer of cocoa, the nation grapples with increasing inequality and a poverty rate of 37.5%. A significant portion of the population, over three-quarters, is under the age of 35.

“People can no longer make ends meet,” Konan expressed, highlighting the plight of many residents. “You need either a stroke of luck or a bit of magic to live comfortably here,” he remarked about Abidjan, a city still relishing its future role as the host of the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations.

Analysts predict that the 83-year-old Ouattara is poised for victory, likely extending his leadership that began in 2011. The race has been shaped by the disqualification of significant opposition figures, including Tidjane Thiam, the former Credit Suisse CEO. A local court barred Thiam from running, citing that he held French nationality, which disqualifies him under Ivorian law. Thiam, who criticized the ruling as unjust, renounced his French citizenship in March.

Consequently, Ouattara’s competition comes from a diminished field of four candidates, among them Jean-Louis Billon, a former commerce minister, and Simone Gbagbo, a former first lady.

The election is the latest in a pattern of African long-term presidents on a collision course with mostly young citizens.

Concerns about possible violence

About 8.7 million people are registered to vote in the election amid fears of the violence that has been common around past ones.

The ban on key opposition leaders has prompted protests that authorities have tried to block. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested, with some sentenced to prison. The government has restricted public gatherings and deployed more than 40,000 security personnel. At least three people have been killed.

Critics say the government has exploited legal provisions to weaken the opposition, and they allege unfairness in the final list of candidates. The president has denied targeting the opposition.

The recent events “undermine stability at a time when (Ivory Coast), like other countries in West Africa, faces big challenges,” said Paul Melly, a consulting fellow with the Africa program at Chatham House.

Ouattara came to power following a political crisis in 2010 and 2011 after Laurent Gbagbo refused to concede defeat. About 3,000 people were killed in the unrest.

Ouattara’s pitch

Ignoring calls to step down and brushing aside concerns over his age, Ouattara has said he seeks a fourth term due to the country’s “unprecedented security, economic and monetary” challenges.

In a pitch to young people, Ouattara told a rally last week: “I have always been committed to offering the best to our youth so that you can start businesses, work, learn and be independent.”

He won a disputed third term in 2020 after he claimed that a 2016 constitutional change reset his years in office to zero. Nearly 100 people died after Ouattara’s victory, according to rights groups.

“Ouattara has almost exclusive control over the state apparatus,” said Séverin Yao Kouamé, a research professor at the country’s University of Bouaké. “He has been able to build power relationships with all those who opposed him, from which he emerged victorious.”

Trouble in the north

Ouattara’s supporters point to a relatively strong economy, a flurry of infrastructure development across the country and investments in the public sector on the back of increasing government earnings and foreign investment.

The country saw 6% economic growth in 2024, according to the World Bank.

“If you left Côte d’Ivoire to live abroad for a few years and came back today, you would not recognize your neighborhood,” said Assita Karamoko, a hairdresser in Abidjan who supports Ouattara, referring to the country by its French name.

A commuter train line in Abidjan is being expanded. In rural areas, more roads have been paved. What was once considered an Abidjan-centric economy is expanding.

“But it is still very hard to translate all of these into enough more jobs for young people. In terms of youth employment and business opportunity, there is still a long way to go,” Melly with Chatham House said.

Security is another challenge. Bordered to the north by conflict-hit Mali and Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast is under pressure to stop a push by armed groups into coastal West Africa. The two junta-led countries have severed ties with the regional bloc, leading to a breakdown in security cooperation.

Analysts regard the Ivorian military as one of the region’s most sophisticated, but as neighbors lose more ground to armed groups, Ivory Coast will have more to deal with.

“The security conditions are fragile and exposed in the north of the country,” Melly said. “That is not the fault of the Ivorian government, (but) that is the reality of the regional situation.”