WASHINGTON – Numerous countries around the world are facing the prospect of much higher duties on their exports to the United States on Friday, a potential blow to the global economy, because they haven’t yet reached a trade deal with the Trump administration.

Some of the United States’ biggest trading partners have reached agreements, or at least the outlines of one, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Even so, those countries face much higher tariffs than were in effect before Trump took office. And other large trading partners — most notably China and Mexico — received an extension to keep negotiating and won’t be hit with new duties Friday, but they will likely end up paying more.

President Donald Trump intends the duties to bring back manufacturing to the United States, while also forcing other countries to reduce their trade barriers to U.S. exports. Trump argues that foreign exporters will pay the cost of the tariffs, but so far economists have found that most are being paid by U.S. companies. And measures of U.S. inflation have started to tick higher as prices of imported goods, such as furniture, appliances, and toys rise.

For those countries without an agreement, they could face duties of as much as 50%, including on large economies such as Brazil, Canada, Taiwan, and India. Many smaller countries are also on track to pay more, including South Africa, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and even tiny Lesotho.

The duties originated from Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement that the United States would impose import taxes of up to 50% on nearly 60 countries and economies, including the 27-nation European Union. Those duties, originally scheduled for April 9, were then postponed twice, first to July 9 and then Aug. 1.

Will the deadline hold this time?

As of Thursday afternoon, White House representatives — and Trump himself — insisted that no more delays were possible.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Trump “at some point this afternoon or later this evening” will sign an order to impose new tariff rates starting midnight on Friday.

Countries that have not received a prior letter on tariffs from Trump or negotiated a trade framework will be notified of their likely tariff rates, Leavitt said, either in the form of a letter or Trump’s executive order. At least two dozen countries were sent letters setting out their tariff rates.

On Wednesday, Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social, “THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE — IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.”

Which countries have a trade agreement?

In a flurry of last minute deal-making, the Trump has been announcing agreements as late as Thursday, but they are largely short on details.

On Thursday, the U.S. and Pakistan reached a trade agreement expected to allow Washington to help develop Pakistan’s largely untapped oil reserves and lower tariffs for the South Asian country.

And on Wednesday, Trump announced a deal with South Korea that would impose 15% tariffs on goods from that country. That is below the 25% duties that Trump threatened in April.

Agreements have also been reached with the European Union, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom. The agreement with the Philippines barely reduced the tariff it will pay, from 20% to 19%.

And which countries don’t?

The exact number of countries facing higher duties isn’t clear, but the majority of the 200 have not made a deal. Trump has already slapped large duties on Brazil and India even before the deadline was reached.

In the case of Brazil, Trump signed an executive order late Wednesday imposing a 50% duty on imports, though he exempted several large categories, including aircraft, aluminum, and energy products. Trump is angry at Brazil’s government because it is prosecuting its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for attempting to overturn his election loss in 2022. Trump was indicted on a similar charge in 2023.

While Trump has sought to justify the widespread tariffs as an effort to combat the United States’ chronic trade deficits, the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Brazil — meaning it sells more goods and services to Brazil than it buys from that country.

Late Wednesday, Trump said that India would pay a 25% duty on all its exports, in part because it has continued to purchase oil from Russia.

On Thursday, the White House said it had extended the deadline to reach a deal with Mexico for another 90 days, citing the complexity of the trade relationship, which is governed by the trade agreement Trump reached when he updated NAFTA in his first term.

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AP Writers Josh Boak and Wyatte Grantham-Philipps contributed to this report.