In a revealing glimpse into the potential political landscape of 2028, a recent Emerson College Polling survey highlights a narrow contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The poll, which targets likely Republican primary voters, positions Vance with 36% support. This marks a notable decline from a previous national poll in February, where he commanded 52% of the support. On the other hand, Rubio has seen a significant increase, climbing to 35% from his earlier 20% base.
The survey also sheds light on the standing of other prominent figures within the party. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley each garnered 5% support. Meanwhile, a notable 15% of those surveyed remain undecided, indicating room for shifts as the political landscape evolves.
Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, interprets these findings as indicative of a tightening race. “It looks like a two-horse race when before, Vance really was running away with it,” Kimball observes. He points out the emerging age divide, where younger voters predominantly support Vance. “If I’m Vance, I’m a little concerned I’m hanging my hat on that youth vote,” Kimball adds. Conversely, Rubio appears to resonate more with older voters, a demographic he is currently leading.
Furthermore, Kimball highlights a gender divide in voter preferences. Vance has experienced a loss of support among both male and female voters, a gap Rubio seems to be closing. This dynamic suggests shifting allegiances could play a critical role as the primary race continues to unfold.
Kimball also noted there’s a gender divide between Vance and Rubio supporters, where Vance lost both male and female voters, both of whom Rubio gained in this poll.
“So we’re seeing a shift in that race right now, and now what looked to be Vance really running away with it, he’s in a tough contest, and we’ll see if any other candidates make it into the fray, but right now it looks like Rubio is the real alternative,” Kimball added.
Kirk Bado, editor of the National Journal’s Hotline, noted that President Donald Trump’s endorsement could be the deciding factor in this race.
“As we’ve seen so often in these primaries in 2026, Trump is kind of the decider in the Republican Party, and I don’t see that going anywhere anytime soon,” Bado said. “And whoever Trump will endorse as his successor, that’s gonna be, not just the leader in the clubhouse, I would be surprised if anybody else were to run and challenge whoever that may be.”
Bado likened the Vance-Rubio matchup to the president’s former reality television show and his love of competition.
“It’s going to be like ‘The Apprentice,’ but instead of the boardroom desk scenes that we saw in the show, it’s going to be an Oval Office scene here where both Rubio and Vance might be auditioning to be the next president.”
On the Democratic Party side of the poll, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led the field with 18%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 16%.
Buttigieg is up two points from Emerson College Polling’s February poll, while Newsom is down four points. Newsom peaked at 25% in Emerson College Polling’s August poll.
The May poll found New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied at 10%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 9%.
Ocasio-Cortez, Shapiro, and Beshear are all up from the February poll, while Harris is down three points.
Kimball noted that Newsom has been out of the spotlight since advocating for California’s redistricting proposition and that a lot of his support is out west. Conversely, Shapiro is a leading candidate in the Northeast, and Buttigieg sees a lot of support in the Midwest. Ocasio-Cortez and Harris also have strong support in the South.
“So you can see these candidates having that regional support,” Kimball said.
The poll also found Trump’s approval rating dropped to 39%, with 55% disapproving of his job performance. The top issue nationally remains the economy, with 41% of likely voters saying it’s their most important issue.