New Development Area Highlighted in Atlantic as 3 Tropical Systems Monitored

ORLANDO, Fla. – Well, peak season may be finally starting to rip the Band-Aid off ever so slightly.

As of the 2 p.m. outlook, the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday has a another tropical wave highlighted for a low chance of development (20%) over the next seven days.

It is forecast to move off the coast of Africa by Friday.

Computer models are beginning to look a little more interesting as they adjust to the passage of our Madden Julian Oscillation. This should help to kickstart a few things out there across the Atlantic, sparking development over the coming weeks.

It’s far out in time, but there are some solutions that suggest both highlighted tropical waves could take a track toward the Caribbean. While Tropical Storm Gabrielle spins away from major landmasses altogether, these upcoming tropical waves will bear some monitoring.

[WATCH BELOW: Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms in Atlantic]

One tropical wave, near the Cabo Verde Islands and expected to continue on a westward path, is given a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and only a 20% for the next seven days.

Given the hostile conditions still in place across our tropical Atlantic, I fully agree with these percentages for the time being. It’s outside the seven-day window when this wave meanders far enough to the west it may try to get going.

Granted, that’s an enormous toss up given whether or not its wave signature can survive the onslaught of dry air and vertical wind shear just out in front of it helping to chew up some of Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The other, rather robust tropical wave is already exhibiting great thunderstorm action as it traverses the western half of Africa on a course for splashdown in the next few days.

Models have already latched on to the potential this could also spin up into our next named storm if it can bob and weave past a few upcoming upper level lows coming down from the northeast Atlantic.

Right now, we’re not tracking any immediate threat to our area of Central Florida, and there’s plenty of time to monitor the progression of everything out in the tropics.

I believe the clutter starting to appear on the home page of the hurricane center’s website is a stern reminder that hurricane season isn’t over until it’s over.