ORLANDO, Fla. – As of Sunday morning, chances for formation are already climbing for a feature off the immediate shores of the Carolinas.

Newly-designated Invest 95L is slowly organizing and could take on our next named storm of Dexter.

Satellite imagery shows a healthy area of low pressure building some quality thunderstorms right around its vortex which is a telltale sign of getting its act together.

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What sparked this new circulation is the same front that tried dropping into our neighborhood here in Central Florida. The tail of that front is draped back across the northern border of our state, driving up rain chances big time.

The National Weather Service actually has a swath of northern Florida and Georgia under a flood watch right now because that front does not want to vacate at all over the next 24 hours.

The center pieces of that front are sitting right over the warmest waters of our Atlantic. As a result, a low-pressure center quickly developed.

The good news?

The same front that helped build our next potential tropical system is going to help block it from trying to wander back west. As it stands, the forward path should keep it headed northeasterly out further into open water, meaning it won’t be a threat to anyone besides fishing or boating interests in the north Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center continues to quickly elevate chances of development, with a 50% chance in the next two days and a 50% chance over the next seven. These are likely to continue going up today and tomorrow.

The same can be said for our large area of interest associated with a tropical wave forecast to drop off the west coast of Africa by Monday night into Tuesday.

Chances are up to 30% this forms over the next seven days with good model agreement we’ll see organization that far to our east.

Recent trends have been promising, showing an escape path for the developing wave out into the central Atlantic away from any close pass to the United States, let alone Central Florida.