Republicans are pulling out all the stops ahead of the special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District as worries of a narrower-than-expected margin grow in the district President Trump won by more than 30 points in November. 

Trump called into two tele-town halls for state Sen. Randy Fine (R) in an effort to drive out the Republican base ahead of Tuesday. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s America PAC spent roughly $10,200 in the race earlier this week and dropped another $66,000 into the race Thursday. 

The efforts come as Democratic candidate Josh Weil has outraised Fine, while an internal poll from the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward showed Weil holding a 3-point lead over Fine. 

Democrats and Republicans continue to maintain that a Republican loss in the district is highly unlikely, given its red lean. However, a narrow margin would give Democrats material to claim there is discontent among Republicans in Trump country. As for Republicans, Democrats’ overperformance in the polls and fundraising is too close for comfort as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) seeks to navigate a razor-thin House margin. 

House Republicans control a narrow 218-213 majority, which does not allow Johnson a ton of flexibility to pass a budget reconciliation package that would combine border security, tax legislation, as well as energy and defense spending. 

Trump acknowledged his concerns over the small House majority and the leeway Johnson has to pass his agenda Thursday, when he pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, writing in a Truth Social post that “we don’t want to take any chances.” 

“It’s about having reinforcements in the House more than anything else,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist. “[Trump] wants to make sure he’s able to drive home the big beautiful bill.”

Republicans push back on the theory that Stefanik’s nomination being pulled had to do with the special House race in Florida, noting it amounted to bad timing and to what they said was New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) slow-walking the special election to replace Stefanik. 

Despite the nervousness ahead of election day, most Republicans and Democrats maintain that Fine will likely win in the end. The question is by how much. 

Democrats are already using the potentially close margins in the race as evidence of what they say is trouble for the GOP even in parts of the country that are favorable to Trump’s agenda. 

“These are races that should not under ordinary circumstances be on anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters earlier this week. “The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling. That is why they are on the run.”

Republicans, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, have also issued warnings about the Tuesday election.

“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 and what the president won it by in November,” DeSantis told reporters.

“It’s a reflection of the candidate that’s running in that race,” DeSantis said. 

DeSantis and Fine have a contentious history dating back to when Fine switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. 

Some Republicans say Fine will ultimately come through with a comfortable enough margin.

“Remember, he didn’t get on TV until last week,” one Republican strategist said. “That’s why Josh is doing so well. I mean, he’s burned through a s‑‑‑load of money, but he’s been up on TV since the beginning of March.” 

Republicans argue that between Fine getting up on TV and the influx of outside spending, Fine will be able to extend his lead to a more comfortable margin. 

Another likely promising sign for Republicans is that early and absentee voting slowly moved toward Fine’s favor last week. 

According to early and mail-in voting data compiled by Decision Desk HQ on Tuesday, it was estimated Fine narrowly led Weil. That trend appeared to be continuing into the weekend as of Friday. 

“The [absentee/early vote] returns have been steadily moving towards the GOP this week and we expect it to be R+8 going into the weekend,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ. “Given GOP voters tend to turn out more on Election Day, we expect the electorate to settle in the R+14 range once all the votes are counted Tuesday.”

“All that being said, we have seen special elections recently where the Democratic candidate has overcome R+15 electorates so that’s why this race remains close in a district President Trump won handily in 2024,” Tranter added. 

The most recent example of a special election flip took place Tuesday in Pennsylvania, where Democrat James Malone won an open Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a district Trump carried with 57 percent of the vote. Democrats have touted the win as a sign of grassroots enthusiasm in the second Trump era. 

But Florida leans much more red than Pennsylvania, with the Florida GOP boasting a registration advantage of nearly 1.2 million voters. 

Should Fine win with a comfortable double-digit margin, some Republicans argue, then Democrats will have a tough time playing up their loss as a victory.

“If he wins by 10, then there’s no narrative,” O’Connell said.