CHELSEA, Mich. (AP) — Amidst this Thanksgiving season, Larry Doll’s Old Brick Farm in Michigan, where he raises poultry such as chickens, turkeys, and ducks, found itself in a fortunate position.

Despite a widespread bird flu outbreak that claimed over two million turkeys across the United States in the past quarter, Doll’s farm, located just west of Detroit, remained untouched. Additionally, he sidestepped the threat of avian metapneumovirus, a disease known to reduce egg production in turkeys.

“Maintaining a clean operation and avoiding the introduction of animals from other farms have been key strategies to lower the risk,” explained Doll, whose farm has been a family legacy for five generations.

Nevertheless, the repercussions of these diseases were felt as the national turkey population reached a 40-year low. This scarcity affected Doll’s hatchery, which had fewer turkey chicks available. He is already planning to order an additional 100 hatchlings, although they won’t be delivered until July.

“Early orders are essential; otherwise, you won’t secure your supply,” he noted.

Thanksgiving costs vary

The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods.

As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce – cost $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores. That’s higher than the average price increase for food eaten at home, which rose 2.7% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Datasembly showed a 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of Nov. 17. Pricing out Thanksgiving meals isn’t an exact science, and the firm’s tally differed from other estimates.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 would cost $55.16 this year, or 5% less than last year. The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year’s estimate.

Tempting turkey prices

Grocery chains are also offering deals to attract shoppers. Discount grocer Aldi is advertising a $40 meal for 10 with 21 items. Kroger said shoppers could feed 10 people for under $50 with its menu of store-brand products.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump touted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket, which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.

“We’re seeing some promotions being implemented in an effort to draw customers into the store,” David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said.

That’s despite a sharp increase in wholesale turkey prices since August. In the second week of November, frozen 8-16 pound hens were averaging $1.77 per pound, up 81% from the same period last year, according to Mark Jordan, the executive director of Leap Market Analytics, which closely follows the poultry and livestock markets.

Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for turkey’s higher wholesale prices has been an increase in consumer demand as other meats have gotten more expensive, Jordan said. Beef prices were up 14% in September compared to last year, for example.

“For a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 a pound,’” Jordan said.

That’s the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes a brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, but the beef brisket he buys would now cost more than $100. Turkey prices are also up at his local H-E-B supermarket, he said, but not by as much.

“I don’t know of anything that’s down in price since last year except for eggs,” Nadeau said.

Tariffs and weather

Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are also raising prices. Farok Contractor, a distinguished professor of management and global business at the Rutgers Business School, said customers are paying 10 cents to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.

Tariffs may be partly to blame for the increased cost of jellied cranberry sauce, which was up 38% from last year in Datasembly’s survey. But weather was also a factor. U.S. cranberry production is expected to be down 9% this year, hurt by drought conditions in Massachusetts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In Illinois, where most of the country’s canning pumpkins are grown, dry weather actually helped pumpkins avoid diseases that are more prevalent in wet conditions, said Raghela Scavuzzo, an associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and the executive director of the Illinois Specialty Growers Association. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix cost 5% less than last year.

Farm to table

Back at Old Brick Farm, which has been in his family since 1864, Doll walked among his turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, patting their heads as they waddled between their warm barn and an open pasture. In a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.

Doll sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year, with customers paying $6.50 per pound for what many tell him is the best turkey they’ve ever tasted. He enjoys a little profit, he said, and the good feeling of supplying a holiday meal.

“I just love it, to think that, you know, not only are we providing them food, but the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,” he said.