ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Melissa is currently grappling with strong wind shear in the Caribbean. However, forecasts indicate that conditions are expected to become significantly more conducive for development over the weekend. This could lead to a rapid intensification of the storm, with the potential to escalate into a major hurricane by late weekend or early next week.

At present, the threat to Florida appears minimal. Nevertheless, it’s crucial to monitor this system closely as it makes its slow journey through the region.

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Current Situation

Currently, Tropical Storm Melissa is facing challenges due to strong westerly wind shear. This has resulted in the storm becoming tilted and its center losing organization.

Air Force reconnaissance data shows the system lopsided and less efficient at strengthening for now.

The storm has been moving slowly and erratically across the central Caribbean, drifting toward the Northwest.

Track and Timing

By late Friday, high pressure is forecast to build to the north, which should cause the system to turn west through the weekend (south of Jamaica).

Early next week, a big dig in the jet stream over the eastern U.S, should help steer Melissa north and eventually northeast, away from the western Caribbean and toward the open Atlantic.

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However, because of a complex steering setup and uncertainty in how organized Melissa becomes, the exact track remains somewhat uncertain.

Confidence is high that impacts will be felt from Haiti, Jamaica and eastern Cuba through early next week.

Strength and Intensification

Once the shearing weakens, Melissa is expected to strengthen quickly, with rapid intensification likely over the weekend and into early next week.

If this happens, Melissa could become a major hurricane by that time.

As the storm intensifies, its wind field will expand and become more symmetrical, meaning impacts could extend farther from the center.

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