ORLANDO, Fla. – In the latest update from the National Hurricane Center at 5 a.m., Tropical Storm Melissa is showing improved organization this Saturday morning. The tropical storm is currently navigating the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, an environment conducive to its strengthening.

According to NHC forecasters, Melissa is anticipated to escalate to hurricane status by Saturday afternoon, with wind speeds projected to hit approximately 85 mph. The warm, open waters provide an opportunity for the storm to intensify rapidly if it remains over the Caribbean for an extended period.

Forecast track and intensity

Forecasts now predict that Melissa will develop into a powerful Category 4 hurricane before making landfall near Kingston along Jamaica’s coastline early on Tuesday morning.

Due to its sluggish pace, Jamaica could endure extended periods of intense winds, heavy rain, and hazardous storm surges. The risk of flooding and landslides is high and could commence as soon as tonight, persisting through Tuesday.

Potential rainfall

Forecasting models indicate that Jamaica, along with parts of eastern Cuba and Haiti, could experience 1–2 feet of rain by Wednesday. This substantial rainfall heightens the threat of flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying and mountainous regions.

Impacts beyond Jamaica

• Haiti: Flooding and landslides are likely along the southern coast early next week, with significant rainfall expected.

• Dominican Republic: Heavy rain, flooding, and gusty winds are possible through early next week as Melissa’s outer bands pass to the south.

• Eastern Cuba: By midweek, the region could experience major hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and torrential rainfall as Melissa approaches or moves near the area.