TRENTON, N.J. – The most important Republican in New Jersey’s race for governor this year might well be a part-time resident of Bedminster who burnished his reputation and his brand near the Atlantic City Boardwalk.

“Donald Trump is the X factor in this GOP primary,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship. “His endorsement right now could make or break, depending on to whom he gives it.”

But in a state that has long leaned Democratic, the president’s endorsement in the June 10 primary could complicate things in a general election, where the winner of a six-person Democratic field awaits.

That may explain why one Republican candidate, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, has criticized Trump over his pardons for those involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, and why two other leading contenders have sought the president’s support without much fanfare.

Still, in one of only two states with a race for governor this year — Virginia is the other — the general election will be closely watched for clues about whether blue state voters have been won over or repelled by Trump’s leadership. Trump, who built his brand as an Atlantic City casino owner and still owns property in New Jersey, including the Bedminster golf club, narrowed the margin between 2020 and 2024 but still lost the state, and Democrats maintain firm control.

Some Republicans think that’s changing.

The GOP field dwindled from five candidates to four this past week when Ed Durr, a former state senator and vocal Trump supporter, dropped out. Durr made national news in 2021 when he shocked state Senate President Steve Sweeney, a Democrat, by winning in their southern New Jersey district. A furniture truck driver new to elected office, Durr said in a statement he was ending his campaign so radio host and fellow Trump supporter Bill Spadea could defeat “never Trumpers” in the race.

Both Spadea and Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP nominee for governor who lost by roughly three percentage points to term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, have said critical things of Trump in the past, but both have embraced him lately.

Ciattarelli met with the president last week. Chris Russell, his campaign strategist, declined to discuss details of the meeting, but said Ciattarelli welcomes the president’s support if he should give it. A message seeking comment was left with Spadea’s campaign.

Mario Kranjac, the former two-term mayor of the suburban New York City town of Englewood Cliffs and a recent entrant into the race, said he thinks he is the most Trump-aligned candidate because he never wavered in his support for Trump during the president’s first term.

“The residents and citizens and taxpayers of New Jersey need a governor with fixed values and beliefs, and that’s me — in terms of everything that I stand for and that President Trump stands for,” he said in a phone interview. “They shouldn’t have to worry that when something happens, their candidate is going to abandon President Trump, which I would never do.”

Part of the challenge for Republicans is that the value of Trump’s support is a moving target. The first two months of his second term as president may have alienated some voters but won others over. Anticipating how much value Trump could add to the campaign when voters cast their primary ballots is guesswork, with circumstances changing by the day.

In the pre-Trump era, some Republicans successfully navigated the shoals between the primary and the general elections. While Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey in more than five decades, they have enjoyed more success in governor’s races. The last three Republicans elected governor — Thomas Kean Sr., Christine Todd Whitman and Chris Christie — all won two consecutive terms. But their brand of politics included business-friendly conservatism, hardly the same as Trump’s aggressive populism.

Democrats remain the dominant party in the state, but some Republicans say that hold is slipping. Russell, Ciattarelli’s strategist, points to the registration gains the GOP has made, shaving the Democrats’ advantage from 1 million more voters to 834,000 more.

He said Democrats should not be overconfident in their traditional advantages.

“I think they’re missing the lesson of the 2024 election in New Jersey, which is Donald Trump did exceedingly well in New Jersey,” he said.

The weight of Trump’s influence lingers as one of the lessons the GOP took from 2024. That much seemed evident in Durr’s withdrawal from the race.

In his statement announcing the decision, Durr said he was ending his campaign so Spadea could prevail. Soon after, Durr said his statement was not actually an endorsement. Steve Kush, a Durr spokesperson, explained the distinction and, in the process, reflected who the big dog is in the primary.

“He doesn’t want to use the word endorse because he doesn’t want to get ahead of President Trump,” Kush said.