Share and Follow
CAIRO (AP) — In a bold move, the U.S. military has declared its intention to impose a blockade on all Iranian ports beginning Monday. This strategic decision aims to pressure Tehran into reopening the pivotal Strait of Hormuz and accepting a peace agreement. In retaliation, Iran has issued threats targeting ports throughout the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, including those in nations allied with the U.S.
This development has set the stage for a potentially dramatic confrontation, fraught with significant implications for the global economy. It also raises concerns over the fragility of the current ceasefire, which could unravel and lead to a resumption of hostilities. Diplomatic efforts to permanently resolve the conflict—which erupted on February 28 with joint U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran—concluded this past weekend without reaching a resolution. There is currently no indication of when or if negotiations will restart.
The effective shutdown of the Strait by Iran, a vital waterway through which 20% of the world’s traded oil passes, has caused oil prices to soar. This surge has had a ripple effect, escalating the costs of gasoline, food, and other essentials well beyond the Middle East. Although Tehran has permitted some vessels it deems friendly to navigate the strait, it has levied substantial fees, prompting accusations of economic coercion on a global scale.
Experts remain skeptical about the feasibility of the U.S. restoring normal shipping operations through military force alone. The specifics of how such a blockade would be implemented, along with the potential risks to U.S. forces, remain uncertain. The critical question is which side can withstand greater hardship: Will the blockade push Iran’s economy to the brink, compelling it to negotiate, or will it inflate global oil prices to a degree that forces U.S. President Donald Trump to reconsider?
The blockade could have far-reaching effects
The U.S. Central Command has announced that starting at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), the blockade will be enforced against all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal regions. This enforcement will cover all of Iran’s ports situated along the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
CENTCOM said it would still allow ships traveling between non-Iranian ports to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a step down from Trump’s earlier threat to blockade the vital waterway.
Iran responded with threats of its own.
“Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe,” read a statement from the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guard.
The threats halted the limited ship traffic that resumed in the strait since the ceasefire, according to a report from Lloyd’s List intelligence. Marine trackers say over 40 commercial ships have crossed since the start of the ceasefire last week, down from roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the war.
The blockade is likely intended to pile pressure on Iran, which has exported millions of barrels of oil since the war began, much of it likely carried by so-called dark transits that evade Western sanctions and oversight.
But the effects will be felt far beyond Iran. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 7% to hover around $102 per barrel on Monday. It cost roughly $70 per barrel before the war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has come under domestic criticism for the inconclusive outcome of the war, expressed support Monday for Trump’s “strong stance to impose a naval blockade on Iran.”
But traditionally close U.S. ally Britain will not be part of the blockade, Prime Minister Keir Starmer told BBC radio Monday, adding his country is “not getting dragged into the war.”
Iran says ‘if you fight, we will fight’
Top-ranking Iranian officials threatened retaliation.
Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, dismissed U.S. warnings of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as “more bluffing than reality,” while warning that Tehran was prepared to respond if the situation escalates militarily.
“It will make the current situation (Trump) is in more complicated and makes the market — which he is angry about — more turbulent. And we may also reveal other cards that we have not used in the game,” he said in a post on X.
Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, addressed Trump in a statement: “If you fight, we will fight.”
Ceasefire is holding but shaky after talks end without agreement
The blockade threat came after marathon U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement on Saturday.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the talks stalled after Iran refused to accept American terms on refraining from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran has insisted its nuclear program is peaceful. However, it has pushed forward with steps that could give it the ability to build a nuclear weapon, including enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels and developing long-range missiles potentially capable of delivering a bomb.
Iranian negotiators could not agree to all U.S. “red lines,” said a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to describe positions on the record. Those red lines included Iran never obtaining a nuclear weapon, ending uranium enrichment, dismantling major enrichment facilities and allowing retrieval of its highly enriched uranium, along with opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending funding for its armed proxies in the region: Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Iranian officials said talks fell apart over two or three key issues. Qalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, did not mention the core disputes in a series of social media posts, but other Iranian officials signaled that the strait remains a key sticking point.
Neither Iran nor the U.S. have indicated what will happen after the ceasefire expires on April 22. The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 2,055 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, and damaged infrastructure in half a dozen countries.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said his country will try to facilitate a new dialogue in the coming days.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, whose country has supported mediations efforts, suggested that the ceasefire could be extended for 45 to 60 days to allow for more negotiations.