KYIV – The leader in charge of Ukraine’s sea-drone initiatives within the military intelligence agency anticipates that more sophisticated assaults on Russian forces will unfold in the coming year. This prediction follows the successful limitation of Russia’s previously formidable Black Sea naval operations by Ukraine’s unmanned fleet.

During a conversation with The Associated Press, the head of Group 13, a specialized team handling maritime drones, revealed that Ukraine’s offensive actions have compelled Russia to revise its strategies. This shift has resulted in fewer opportunities for large-scale Black Sea assaults that were more common earlier in the conflict.

Identified solely by the call sign “13th” in adherence to Ukrainian military protocols, the officer remarked, “At present, we seem to have hit a plateau.”

He further elaborated, “While we are successfully curtailing the adversary’s movements, the striking, headline-grabbing attacks we witnessed in the past have not occurred recently. This is due to the enemy’s adaptations.”

In recent weeks, Ukrainian authorities acknowledged the use of sea-attack drones targeting ships within Russia’s clandestine “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. However, the commander refrained from discussing these specific operations.

The officer said Russian naval vessels “barely operate,” often venturing only up to 25 miles (40 kilometers) from port to fire missiles before retreating. “They constantly hide. And in a way, that’s also a result of our unit — because you can imagine the cost of maintaining a fleet that cannot operate at sea.”

The officer spoke in uniform, his face covered and eyes obscured by tinted glasses. For security reasons, the intelligence agency asked that the location and other details of the interview not be disclosed.

Drone technology has become vital to Ukraine’s military, offering inexpensive tools for reconnaissance and strikes in countering Russia’s invasion. Its two sea-drone programs are run separately by its military and domestic intelligence services.

Group 13 operates the Magura family of sea drones, which Ukraine credits with multiple strikes on Russian ships.

The unit currently deploys two variants — the V5, a smaller ramming drone, and the larger V7, a weapons platform. Both are controlled remotely using suitcase-sized consoles equipped with joysticks, screens and safety switches.

At a recent demonstration, operators showed a V7 fitted with modified U.S.-made Sidewinder air-to-air missiles. In May, the intelligence agency said a Magura drone shot down a Russian fighter jet — a development the commander called a “breakthrough” in maritime warfare.

He said the next stage of Ukraine’s drone evolution will rely on deeper integration of artificial intelligence, using a growing archive of operational video and sensor data to improve targeting and reduce operator workload.

“Right now, target search is a combined process — part operator, part AI,” he said. “In the future, you’ll launch the drone and it will independently search for a target, distinguish civilian vessels from military ones, and make more of the decisions.”

Ukraine’s military, he added, had a “huge amount” of operational data available to further train AI models.

Although he did not comment on specific development plans within the intelligence agency, 13th said countries exploring longer-range strike options, submersible drones and more complex mixed-fleet operations see such systems as a logical next step.

Ukraine is also seeking to expand co-production of drones with several NATO countries next year.

During a visit by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Athens last month, Kyiv and Greece announced plans for joint work on maritime uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), expanded training and exercises, and information-sharing on maritime threats.

Despite Russia’s adjustments, the commander said Ukraine’s sea-drone program remains effective.

“We’re working on many fronts to change this situation and create a turning point,” he said. “For now, I can say this: We haven’t lost effectiveness. We’ve simply reached a point where we’re holding the enemy in check.”

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Oleksii Yeroshenko contributed to this report.