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In Dubai, United Arab Emirates, discussions between Iranian and U.S. representatives were poised to enter a crucial phase on Friday, despite existing tensions. Israel and Hezbollah continued their exchange of hostilities, while Iran kept asserting its control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Numerous challenges still threaten the fragile ceasefire and the potential for a broader agreement aimed at permanently ending the conflict.
The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, reported that the upcoming talks, scheduled for Saturday, might be postponed unless Israel ceases its military actions in Lebanon. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Iran, accusing it of hindering the free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20% of global oil trade once flowed.
Separately, Kuwait reported being targeted by a drone attack on Thursday night, attributing the incident to Iran and its regional militia partners. Although Iran’s Revolutionary Guard denied involvement, the country has previously executed unclaimed attacks throughout the Middle East.
Despite these tensions, preparations for the Iran-U.S. talks in Pakistan seemed to progress, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance slated to depart from Washington. Concurrently, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are anticipated to commence next week in Washington, as confirmed by a U.S. official and an individual familiar with the situation, both requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions.
Israel and Lebanon will have direct negotiations
Israel’s insistence that the ceasefire in Iran does not include a pause in its fighting with Hezbollah, which joined the war in support of its backer, Iran, has threatened to scupper the deal.
The day the truce was announced, Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes, killing more than 300 people, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. It was the deadliest day in the country since the war began Feb. 28.
Trump said Thursday that he has asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dial back the strikes. Early Friday, Israel’s military said it hit approximately 10 launchers in Lebanon that had fired rockets toward northern Israel a day earlier.
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned Thursday that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would bring “explicit costs and STRONG responses.”
Netanyahu, meanwhile, said that he authorized the negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible” with the aim of disarming Hezbollah militants and establishing relations between the neighbors, which have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948.
The Lebanese government had not responded as of early afternoon Friday. The timing and location of the talks were first reported by Axios.
Two days after Israel’s intense barrage, people sifted through the wreckage of their homes, trying to salvage whatever furniture and personal mementos they could find in the rubble. Some expressed gratitude that they lost only their homes and belongings, not their loved ones, as others had.
“There is no substitute for family,” said Wissam Tabila, 35. “Everything else can be replaced.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices skyrocketing, driven stocks down and roiled the world economy. Tehran’s control over the waterway has proved its biggest strategic advantage in the war.
The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around $97 Friday, up more than 30% since the war started.
Before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait each day — many carrying oil to Asia. With the ceasefire in place, only 12 have been recorded passing through.
Underscoring the precarious situation, a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker attempted to travel out of the Persian Gulf via a route ordered by the Revolutionary Guard, but suddenly turned around early Friday, ship-tracking data showed.
The head of the United Arab Emirates’ major oil company, Sultan al-Jaber, said some 230 ships loaded with oil were waiting to get through the strait and must be allowed “to navigate this corridor without condition.”
U.S. President Donald Trump complained about that situation, writing on his social media platform: “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”
“That is not the agreement we have!” Trump wrote of the trickle of ships Iran has allowed to pass.
The ceasefire deal is still fragile
Questions also remain over the fate of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs — which the U.S. and Israel sought to eliminate in going to war.
The U.S. insists Iran must never be able to build nuclear weapons and wants to remove Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be used to make them. Iran insists its program is peaceful.
Trump has said that the U.S. would work with Iran to remove the uranium, though Tehran has not confirmed that.
The chief of Iran’s nuclear agency, Mohammad Eslami, said Thursday that protecting Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is “necessary” for any ceasefire talks.
More than 3,000 people have been killed in Iran, according to a top Iranian medical official. Iran’s government has not provided any definitive death toll from the weekslong war.