Which Film is Poised to Take the Top Honors?

The lineup of 10 nominees this year is notably strong. Brad Pitt’s Apple original, “F1,” shares the big blockbuster category with the eccentric “Bugonia,” a collaboration between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone. Guillermo del Toro returns with his adaptation of “Frankenstein” following his 2018 victory with “The Shape of Water.” The list continues with the emotional depth of “Hamnet,” the tension-filled “Marty Supreme” featuring Timothée Chalamet, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s sharp “One Battle After Another,” which demonstrates the ongoing fusion of art and politics as highlighted by Slash Film.

Adding to the diversity of the category are Ryan Coogler’s dynamic blockbuster “Sinners,” starring two Michael B. Jordans, and international contenders like “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” directed by Joachim Trier and Kleber Mendonça Filho, respectively. Netflix presents “Train Dreams,” a quietly impactful drama. Yet, “One Battle After Another” stands out as the likely winner, not only due to its collection of precursor awards but also because it is genuinely one of the year’s standout films.

Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” focuses on a revolutionary group called the French 75. Teyana Taylor stars as Perfidia Beverly Hills, alongside Leonardo DiCaprio’s Pat Calhoun, who later becomes Bob Ferguson as he goes into hiding with his daughter Willa, played by Chase Infiniti. After Perfidia’s arrest and abandonment of her family, Bob’s protective instincts lead him on a chaotic quest to save Willa from the clutches of Sean Penn’s Colonel Steven Lockjaw, a truly menacing antagonist.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” centers itself around a group of revolutionaries that call themselves the French 75, including Teyana Taylor’s Perfidia Beverly Hills and Leonardo DiCaprio’s Pat Calhoun — whose name later changes to Bob Ferguson when he and his renamed daughter Willa (Chase Infiniti) go into hiding. After Perfidia’s arrest and subsequent desertion of her boyfriend and daughter, Bob is intensely protective of Willa … and must go on a madcap mission to rescue her from imminent danger at the hands of Colonel Steven Lockjaw, a straight-up demon played by Sean Penn.

At this point in the Oscar race, the only true competition for “One Battle After Another” is “Sinners,” a movie about twins Elijah “Smoke” and Elias “Stack” Moore (both played by Michael B. Jordan) who decide to open a juke joint in the rural Mississippi Delta after some time in Chicago. To be honest, the fact that the Oscar for best picture is almost definitely going to “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” proves that 2025 provided an embarrassment of riches for moviegoers; even though Anderson’s American masterpiece will likely net him best picture and a shiny best director trophy to go with it, Ryan Coogler seems poised to take home best original screenplay and could very well beat out Anderson based on a recent surge of affection for the very worthy “Sinners.”

Still, if we’re placing bets, “One Battle After Another” remains the movie to watch in the best picture race. Anderson won best director at the Directors Guild of America Awards in February 2026, and the film’s producers took the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards that same month. So, are there any other potential spoilers? Not really.

Sometimes, international films get strange representation at the Academy Awards, and Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” is actually a perfect example of such a thing. So is 2020’s best picture winner, “Parasite,” which won awards for its writer and director Bong Joon-ho as well as the night’s big prize but received zero acting nods, as if the movie propelled itself forward without any great performances. Conversely, “Sentimental Value” received a very strong showing when the Oscar nominations were announced, particularly in the acting categories: Renate Reinsve earned one for best actress, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are both represented in the supporting actress category, and Stellan Skarsgård shows up in the crowded, competitive supporting actor race.

There is almost no world where “Sentimental Value” wins the Oscar for best picture, and honestly? That’s a shame! Even though an offbeat pick like “Bugonia” or “Frankenstein” would be even weird and a bigger upset, “Sentimental Value” hasn’t won any of the precursors from the directing or producing guilds, and even though the central cast has been nominated quite a bit at awards like the Actor Awards and the Golden Globes, they haven’t been winning. In a year that’s not quite as strong as 2025, “Sentimental Value” — the story of playwright Gustav Borg (Skarsgård), his ongoing work, and his fractured relationship with his daughters — might come away with the big prize, particularly because it’s Trier’s most recognized work to date. During this particular year, though, “Sentimental Value” is the longest of long shots.

The Oscars air on ABC and Hulu at 7 p.m. EST.