10 House Races That Could Determine Control of Congress

Republicans appear on track to lose control of the House of Representatives within days, and even President Donald Trump is worried that his supporters may not show up at the polls.

The GOP has held the White House, Senate and House since Trump returned to power in January 2025. Yet polling throughout the midterm campaign has repeatedly given Democrats the advantage, with their lead expanding in recent months.

Trump has publicly raised doubts about whether conservative voters will turn out when he is not personally on the ballot.

“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote, and that’s the one thing I can’t tell,” he said recently, urging Republicans to vote as though he were a candidate.

Republicans do have one significant advantage: fundraising. The party is bringing in more money than Democrats nationally and in several key battlegrounds. Still, campaign cash cannot guarantee turnout, and control of the House is expected to hinge on a small number of competitive districts.

Here are the races most likely to determine which party controls the chamber, including contests being reshaped by scandals, serious allegations and bitter family disputes.

The US House 

Republicans currently hold a majority in the US House of Representatives, with 218 seats to Democrats’ 212. The chamber also has four vacancies—three Democratic seats and one Republican seat.

Democrats must flip at least three seats to take control of the House.

These are among the closest contests ahead of November, featuring an absent congressman, explosive abuse allegations and other high-stakes developments.

New Jersey’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) versus Rebecca Bennett (D)

Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr of New Jersey missed more than 140 consecutive votes earlier this year, later attributing his absence from Washington to depression. His extended hiatus and guarded comments prompted questions from local and national media, while some raised concerns about his ability to represent constituents. In November, Kean will face Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who easily defeated three other Democrats to win the nomination. The Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” at the end of September.

Ohio’s 7th District: Rep. Max Miller (R) versus Brian Poindexter (D)

Ohio’s 7th District has become one of the most turbulent races in the country as domestic “abuse” allegations threaten Trump-backed incumbent Max Miller. His former wife, Emily Moreno—the daughter of Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno—has made serious claims involving their two-year-old daughter, allegations Miller has denied. His support among voters has nevertheless dropped sharply since the physical abuse claims, first reported by the Daily Mail, emerged. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as a “toss up,” while recent polling showed Miller trailing by roughly eight points.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) versus Janelle Stelson (D)

Republican incumbent Scott Perry is headed for a rematch with Janelle Stelson after narrowly defeating her in 2024. Perry won 50.5 percent of the vote, compared with 49.3 percent for Stelson. As a member of the staunchly conservative Freedom Caucus, Perry faces questions about whether his views fit the swing district. The Cook Political Report reclassified the race as “lean Democrat” during the first week of October after previously listing it as a “toss up.” A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted for The Philadelphia Inquirer in the third week of October found the candidates tied at 48 percent each.

Virginia’s 2nd District: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) versus Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)

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Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is set for another face-off with Democrat Elaine Luria, whom she wrested Virginia’s Second District from in 2022. Luria represented the seat for two terms after winning it in a midterm election in 2018 during the last time Trump was in the White House, ousting Republican Scott Taylor. Both Kiggans and Luria are veterans, having served in the US Navy, and they seek to represent a seat that is home to nearly 90,000 veterans. The seat is rated to ‘lean Democrat’ after shifting from a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report. A poll conducted by Christopher Newport University in the first week of October found Luria up by three percent, 46 to 43. Ten percent of respondents to the CNU poll were undecided at the time.

New York’s 17th District: Mike Lawler (R) versus Cait Conley (D)

A big race to keep an eye on is incumbent Republican Mike Lawler versus veteran Cait Conley in New York. Lawler is under scrutiny for his close friendship with Max Miller, who is facing abuse allegations, and lavish spending on the campaign trail. He also recently admitted that he was ‘arrested for DWI’ in his younger days, and a copy of the decade-old police report by the Daily Mail showed a record of reckless actions by Lawler at the time. He was recorded as having blood-alcohol content of .14, nearly double the state legal limit of .08 at the time of the incident. Unlike some of his GOP colleagues, Lawler has embraced President Donald Trump, and was rewarded with a prime speaking spot at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas in September. Lawler was given a surprising assist in the form of a ringing endorsement from one outgoing Democratic colleague, Mainer Jared Golden, who wrote a letter backing Lawler which was published in his hometown paper at the end of September. The seat is rated ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report. 

Michigan’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) versus William Lawrence (D)

Freshman Republican Tom Barrett has an uphill battle in his first-ever re-election bid this November. He is facing off against William Lawrence, a progressive climate organizer with a 13-year-old felony case related to his activism. During a 2013 protest at an Enbridge Energy pipeline work site, Lawrence chained himself to construction equipment and refused to leave. He was charged with resisting and obstructing police, which is a felony, and the conviction was later expunged. The seat is rated to be a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report. An Emerson College poll from mid-October found Lawrence up seven, with 53 percent to Barrett’s 45 percent.

Iowa’s 1st District: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) versus Christina Bohannan (D)

Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is no stranger to tough elections. After winning her first federal race in 2020 by 6 votes, Miller-Meeks, like Kiggans, has had a tough job keeping both her base happy and working to satisfy independent voters. This time around, she is facing Christina Bohannan, a lawyer, engineer, and former State Representative. Miller-Meeks, like Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, could be hurt by a strong turnout for Democrat Rob Sand in the governor’s race if his supporters vote the whole ballot. The seat was shifted to ‘lean Democrat’ in the first week of October after being ranked as a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) versus Eric Flores (R)

Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is facing Republican Eric Flores in a redrawn seat this November. The district has trended towards the GOP in recent years, and Flores believes that voters don’t share Democratic opposition to Trump’s immigration policies in a heavily Hispanic region. Gonzalez, meanwhile, has characterized Trump’s approach as ‘America Last.’ The seat is rated to ‘lean Democrat’ after shifting from a ‘toss up’ per the Cook Political Report. A poll conducted by the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Government in mid-October found Gonzalez up 7 points, with 50 percent of respondents supporting him, compared to 43 percent who backed Flores.

Nebraska’s 2nd District: Denise Powell (D) versus Brinker Harding (R) 

Republican Congressman and retired US Air Force Brigadier General Don Bacon chose not to seek re-election in 2026, after winning his 2024 race for the GOP despite Kamala Harris winning his district by five points and its electoral vote. That leaves one of the most vulnerable GOP House seats in the country open with no incumbent. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Councilman, faces off against Denise Powell, a mom and small business owner, in November for Bacon’s seat. The seat was shifted to ‘likely Democrat’ in the first week of October after being ranked to ‘lean Democrat‘ by the Cook Political Report.

California’s 22nd District: Rep. David Valadao (R) versus Randy Villegas (D) 

Incumbent Republican David Valadao has maintained an independent streak throughout his six terms in the US House of Representatives. If reelected, he would be the only GOP member of the House still serving in the second half of Trump’s second term, despite having voted to impeach Trump in 2021. In November, Valadao faces Randy Villegas, an educator and activist. The seat is rated a ‘toss-up’ by the Cook Political Report.