Australian Suburbs Hit Hardest by Property Slump—and Those Defying It

Nearly one in two homes resold in a major Australian property market is now being sold for less than its previous purchase price, with new data identifying the suburbs where vendors are losing tens of thousands of dollars.

Figures from Cotality show 47 per cent of resales in Melbourne’s CBD recorded a loss during the June quarter. Sydney’s Parramatta followed with a 23 per cent loss-making resale rate, placing both among Australia’s weakest property markets.

Unit owners in Sydney and Melbourne have been particularly exposed. Almost 40 per cent of the total value of apartment resale losses nationwide was concentrated across five LGAs: Melbourne CBD, Parramatta, Stonnington, Port Phillip and Sydney CBD.

Cotality Head of Research Gerard Burg said overall resale profitability remained ‘exceptionally high’ by historical standards, but the housing downturn was starting to erode profits, especially for people who bought more recently.

‘Most sellers are still benefiting from the significant value growth accumulated over the past five years, which is providing considerable protection against the early stages of the downturn,’ he said.

‘With home values falling across more markets, that buffer will become increasingly important in determining resale outcomes.’

Mr Burg said buyers were under growing financial strain on several fronts, warning that further falls in home values could force a greater number of sellers to accept losses.

‘Affordability and mortgage serviceability were already constraining buyers before the downturn, with three interest rate increases in the first half of 2026, higher cost-of-living pressures, weaker consumer sentiment and changes affecting property investors adding further pressure on housing demand,’ he said.

‘There is significant uncertainty around the short-term economic outlook, particularly the direction of interest rates and increasing pressure on household budgets.’

AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, said the Reserve Bank is expected to hike interest rates at its next meeting later this month, however, a second hike in November was unlikely as it risked sending more mortgage holders over the edge.

‘A second hike in say November would probably be overkill as it would risk tipping many households with a mortgage over the edge, risking in turn a crash in property prices, much higher unemployment and a deep recession,’ he said.

‘Interestingly the money market now has nearly three hikes priced in by October next year – but that looks like an overreaction to the surge in oil prices.’

The warning comes amid starkly different fortunes across the property market. 

While apartment owners in parts of Sydney and Melbourne are being forced to wear losses, sellers in Western Australia continue to cash in on the state’s housing boom. 

Three WA local government areas dominated the country’s most profitable resale markets, pushing traditional lifestyle hotspots such as Kiama on NSW’s South Coast and Noosa on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast down the rankings. 

Chittering, north-east of Perth, topped the nation with a median nominal gain of $872,500 in the June quarter after dwelling values soared more than 180 per cent from their pre-pandemic lows in 2019.

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Cambridge in Perth’s inner west ranked second with a median gain of $740,000, followed by Joondalup in the city’s north at $732,500.

Kiama ranked fourth with a median gain of $725,000, while Noosa placed sixth at $711,000.

Houses continued to leave units in their wake when it came to resale returns with house sellers pocketing a median gain of $435,500, compared with $251,000 for unit owners.

Buyer’s agent Glenn Price said there were still many vendors thinking their property was worth more than it actually is. 

‘They’re still stuck in 2023 mode, when properties were selling like hotcakes,’ he told the Daily Mail.

‘That horse has bolted. The market is what it is, and a property is only worth what a buyer is prepared to pay for it in 2026.’

Mr Price said many vendors forgot one of the basic rules of selling in a downturn.

‘Sell lower, buy lower. Whatever you believe you’ve lost on the sale can often be clawed back when you purchase the next property,’ he said.

‘The agents I’m speaking with every week are telling me the same thing. Fair offers are coming in, agents are advising their vendors to accept them, and plenty of vendors are refusing because they still believe something better is coming.’

Mr Price said once a property sits online for 100 days or more it becomes ‘cold stock’ and was unlikely to attract top dollar. 

‘Once a property has been sitting that long, I’m throwing in a lowball offer to find out if the vendor has become desperate,’ he said.

‘Like reduced-to-clear stock at the supermarket. I didn’t really want it, but if it’s cheap enough, I’ll buy it and see what it tastes like.’

Brisbane retained its position as Australia’s most profitable capital city in the June quarter, a title it has held since June 2024, with 99.8 per cent of resales delivering a gain and sellers pocketing a median profit of $525,000.

Adelaide ranked second for overall profitability at 98.9 per cent, while its median gain increased from $472,000 in March to a record $480,400. 

Perth followed, with 98.8 per cent of resales recording a profit and a median gain of $470,000.

Melbourne recorded the lowest share of profitable resales among the capitals at 89 per cent.