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After Trump’s surprisingly strong 2024 showing in California, Republicans started talking red wave again. But math, not mood, decides elections — and the math doesn’t lie.
An analysis conducted by The Ballot Book reveals just how stark the challenge has become for Republicans. In California districts where Democrats hold a:
- 0-5% registration advantage, races are toss-ups.
- 5-10% advantage, Democrats win nearly 66% of the time.
- 10-15% advantage, the win rate jumps to 85%.
- 15-20% advantage, Democrats win over 93% of races.
- Above 20% advantage, Republicans have virtually no path to victory.
This isn’t partisan complaining. It’s math.
And if you’re a Republican strategist, candidate, or talking head in California, ignoring these numbers, you’re not doing your job. The state’s political geography won’t shift with tweets, media appearances, or well-attended rallies.
The belief that California is “turning red” is dangerously misleading. It wastes resources, misguides candidates, and blocks honest self-assessment. The result? No real progress, just recycled disappointment.
Need proof?
Look at my race in the 43rd Congressional District. Maxine Waters has held the seat for more than 30 years. The registration gap? 58.66% Democrat to 11.73% Republican. As a result, I received just 24.9% of the vote, outperforming registration, but nowhere near enough to win. This isn’t a lack of effort. It’s structural math.
Don’t be fooled by the media or political echo chambers. You cannot win what is mathematically unwinnable.
Republicans don’t lose in these districts because voters are too liberal. They lose because the math is stacked against them.
But there is a path forward:
- Expand the Base Through Relentless Registration. We must grow the base by reaching low-propensity voters: working-class families, young voters, independents, and disillusioned Democrats. Many are registered; they just don’t vote. We need to engage them year-round, not just in election cycles.
- Refine the Message. Our message must reflect competence, not just complaints. People care about public safety, cost of living, schools, and housing, not national talking points. When we lead with solutions instead of slogans, we start to earn trust across party lines.
- Invest in Turnout Infrastructure. Winning starts with field operations. That means precinct captains, ballot-chasing, early vote engagement, and year-round contact. Volunteers, local leaders, and trusted messengers need to be trained, equipped, and active — not just for six weeks, but for twelve months.
There’s no shortcut. No gimmick. No overnight fix.
While some cling to the comfort of social media bubbles, the real world demands more than slogans and pretty faces. California Republicans must move past the hype and confront the numbers honestly.
If we want a red wave in California, we have to earn it — vote by vote, block by block, year by year.
We don’t need more noise.
We need more precinct captains.
