California voters are poised to approve a new map favoring Democrats, a significant political boost for Governor Gavin Newsom as he considers a possible presidential run.

According to public polls, Proposition 50, which proposes a fresh set of congressional boundaries offering Democrats several opportunities to gain House seats next year, is expected to pass with ease next Tuesday.

With both parties anticipating the measure’s approval, some Democrats suggest it strengthens Newsom’s position within the party as they search for a leader to guide them toward the 2028 elections.

“Gavin Newsom is taking a commendable risk by challenging both Republicans and the president to benefit the party, rather than himself, aiming to increase Democratic representation in the House by four or five members after 2026,” noted seasoned Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “He deserves recognition for this effort.”

Earlier in the year, Newsom initiated a special election to counter Republican redistricting strategies, notably encouraged by President Trump in states like Texas. For California to revise its map, the state needed to pass a constitutional amendment allowing it to bypass its independent redistricting commission responsible for establishing congressional lines.

The measure makes clear that the process is only temporary, and that the redistricting panel would take up the task of creating California’s congressional map again after the 2030 U.S. Census.  

Despite initial ambivalence toward redistricting, California voters now look set to give the legislature a green light, following a campaign pushed by Newsom that has largely focused on anti-Trump sentiment and concerns over democracy.

Public polling suggests more than half of California voters will approve Prop 50. Emerson College Polling released new numbers last week finding that 57 percent of likely voters supported the measure; that support increased to 60 percent when undecided voters are factored in. 

A CBS News/YouGov survey released last week found 62 percent of likely voters would support the measure, while a co/efficient poll found it passing by 54 percent. 

Adding to the redistricting proponents’ optimism is the spending gulf separating the two sides. State campaign finance filings show Newsom’s group alone has amassed $114 million as of Oct. 18, with $37 million left in the bank, while the two principal groups opposing the measure have hauled in just over a third of that — $43.7 million, with roughly $2.3 million cash on hand.

“I think that all the signs are that it’s gonna pass pretty overwhelmingly,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who’s doing work for major GOP donor Charles Munger’s Prop 50 opposition group, the Protect Voters First committee.

“We have to remember this is an extraordinarily partisan moment in American history,” Madrid said. “California is the largest, bluest state — to change that dynamic at a time when Donald Trump is at all-time lows, that would be an extraordinarily high hill to overcome.” 

Newsom’s campaign even sent out an email to supporters on Monday urging them to stop donating money. The campaign said it had “hit our budget goals and raised what we need in order to pass Proposition 50.”  Yet Newsom cautioned in a video posted on Instagram on Tuesday that “don’t think for a second we can run the 90-yard dash.”

The California governor has perhaps the most to gain from the measure’s passage.

Newsom has taken an aggressive stance against Trump since the beginning of the year, raising speculation over his political aspirations. Over the weekend, he confirmed to CBS News that he was seriously considering a White House bid in 2028, saying that he’d be “lying otherwise.”

Still, his team says the governor isn’t focused on the 2028 horse race right now. 

“The Governor is 100% focused on passing Prop 50. Every day Donald Trump remains in power is code red for America and our democracy,” Hannah Milgrom, a spokesperson for Newsom and the Yes on 50 campaign, told The Hill in a statement. 

Political observers stress there’s a long time between now and the next presidential election. But they agree a Prop 50 passage next week would bode well for Newsom should he decide to run for president. 

“This is like leagues out of what the typical governor can brag about when they run for president,” said Democratic strategist Garry South, who ran Newsom’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign.

Madrid argued that even if Prop 50 failed to pass, Newsom would still enjoy an upside from the election. 

“I think even if he were to lose, it’s still a win, because he’s just showing the fight,” Madrid said.  

Other strategists are setting lower expectations for Newsom. Jon Fleischman, a former California GOP executive director, said passing Prop 50 would be a “modest victory” for the governor. 

“Winning is a good sign for Gavin Newsom, but we also have to remember that the win is tempered by the fact that winning a partisan Democrat ballot measure in one of the bluest states in the country was not the world’s biggest lift,” Fleischman said. “So if he had lost, I think it would have been a huge, embarrassing defeat.” 

Sragow, the Democratic strategist, noted that even if Prop 50 passes next week, the party and Newsom still have a ways to go before declaring victory ahead of the 2026 midterms — and even 2028. 

“There’s an assumption being made that based on the way … the congressional district lines will be drawn, if Prop 50 wins, that the Democrats will pick up four or five seats in the House. I mean, that’s an assumption that hasn’t happened yet,” Sragow said. 

And Newsom’s “got a lot of traveling to do, a lot of speeches to give, a lot of media appearances to give and a lot of unknown events to deal with before he ever gets to a hold a party in the new East Wing of the White House.”