Democrats could be on course for a sweeping midterm election victory that would allow them to take control of Congress from Republicans, according to CNN’s leading polling analyst.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said the latest figures point to a potentially disastrous night for President Donald Trump’s party.
Speaking on Sunday, Enten offered a striking forecast: Democrats have a strong chance of making major gains in the House of Representatives and are also favored to win what could be a comfortable majority in the Senate.
With the November election less than two weeks away, Enten suggested the contest for control of Capitol Hill could be far less competitive than many political observers expect.
His analysis points instead to a potentially punishing Republican defeat—one that could substantially alter the balance of power in Washington.
‘The midterms are just days away and I’m pouring over hundreds, no thousands of polls and data points,’ Enten told viewers.
‘And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory! My goodness gracious!’
Enten stressed that his eye-catching prediction was driven by statistical analysis and modeling, not by his own political views.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said the midterm elections were entering ‘blowout territory,’ citing a 71 percent chance that either party would win at least 230 House seats
President Donald Trump faces the possibility of losing Republican control of Congress after CNN polling expert Harry Enten said the midterms were entering ‘blowout territory.’ Trump campaigned in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday
Enten’s forecast gives Democrats a chance to win 238 seats in the House of Representatives, up from the 232 seats projected in August, raising the possibility of a severe Republican defeat
‘And of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and I just listen,’ he added.
Enten first focused on the House, where Democrats are seeking to harness voter dissatisfaction and end the Republican majority in Congress.
His forecast put the odds of Democrats winning at least 230 House seats at 71 percent—a result he described as a ‘blowout.’
‘The chance of a House blowout is 71%, 71%,’ Enten explained. ‘Now, there’s a 29% chance that it doesn’t happen, right? But 71% things happen more often than 29% things! I know enough of math to know that.’
The outlook appeared even more unfavorable for Republicans when Enten assessed which party was most likely to reach that level of dominance.
His analysis gave Republicans only a 2 percent chance of winning at least 230 House seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, were assigned a 69 percent chance of reaching the same threshold.
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‘We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for Republicans to actually blow out the Democrats,’ Enten said.
Former President Barack Obama returned to the campaign trail over the weekend to rally Democratic voters ahead of the midterms, as new election forecasts indicated that his party could make significant gains in both the House and Senate
Despite predicting major Democratic gains, Enten revealed that mid-October congressional polling has often underestimated Republican support in 15 of 16 elections since 1994
‘What we’re talking about here is that Democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the Republicans.’
He described their prospects as ‘a very, very nice 69% chance.’
Such an outcome would represent a significant political setback for Trump, potentially handing Democrats the numbers needed to challenge his administration’s legislative priorities and intensify congressional oversight.
Enten then turned his attention to the Senate, where the battle for control has been one of the most closely watched contests of the election cycle.
His analysis offers another encouraging prediction for Democrats.
According to Enten, there is a 57% chance that Democrats will emerge with at least 52 Senate seats, giving them not merely a majority but a cushion beyond the 51 seats needed for outright control.
‘It’s 57% chance that Democrats win,’ he explained. ‘Not just a majority in the United States Senate, but a majority with room to spare in the United States Senate.’
However, the analyst stressed that Republicans were far from being completely written off.
His forecast also gives the GOP a 24% chance of winning at least 51 Senate seats, meaning a decisive Republican victory remains a realistic possibility despite the Democrats’ statistical advantage.
Enten identified six fiercely contested Senate races that could determine control of the chamber, with Democrats holding narrow polling advantages in those states
Combining the scenarios, Enten calculated an 81% probability that either party would emerge from the Senate elections with a majority extending beyond the narrowest possible margin.
That leaves just a 19% chance of an exceptionally close outcome in which the balance of power could depend on a single contest.
‘So yeah, look, there’s a 19% chance right? On the other side of this coin that we’re really down to the wire, when we’re really counting the ballots and one state is ultimately going to decide things on election night,’ Enten said.
‘It’s possible, but it’s only about a one in five chance.’
He concluded that the most likely outcome was a Senate majority with at least one seat to spare, rather than a knife-edge result.