The anticipation is building as the pivotal 2025 elections approach their conclusion on November 4th. With just days to go, it’s time to unveil our sophisticated yet highly reliable predictions on the outcomes.

In the race for Virginia’s governorship, the battle lines are drawn between Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former Congresswoman, and the Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, Spanberger holds a lead with 50.7 percent compared to Earle-Sears’ 43.1 percent. This figure has remained relatively stable since our last update. Spanberger surpassing the 50 percent threshold is a noteworthy indicator of her strong position in the race.

Turning to the contest for Lieutenant Governor, the dynamics are intriguing. Despite limited funding, Republican candidate John Reid is trailing only slightly behind Democrat Ghazala Hashmi. This close margin has surprised many observers as Hashmi continues her campaign efforts vigorously.

We also know the following:

1. Abigail Spanberger is not a good candidate, but Winsome Earle-Sears has been criticized as well.
2. Virginia has become a Democrat leaning state thanks to the growth of the federal government.  However, state campaigns can be a different beast (see above).
3. The prior history of Virginia shows that the incumbent president’s party (almost) always loses the off-off year elections for governor, except in 2013 when the Democrats heavily outspent the GOP and gamed the race by propping up a conservative leaning independent.
4. For most of the campaign, the Democrats were heavily outspending the GOP. 
5. However, “(a)ccording to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the Earle-Sears campaign is currently set to vastly outspend Spanberger on the airwaves in the final stretch of the campaign… The Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction PAC also poured $4 million into Earle-Sears’s campaign on October 28.”
6. The final ad from Earle-Sears ties Spanberger to her Attorney General ticket mate, who has been rocked by scandals (see below).
7. I think it is a stretch to believe that ticket-mate scandals would substantially affect the governor’s race.  
8. If any state shows a backlash to the GOP for the government shutdown, federal government worker-heavy Virginia will be that state.  
9. Spanberger’s campaign has her campaigning in rural GOP heavy areas, which is usually a sign of confidence.

In the Lt. Governor’s race, surprisingly, the largely unfunded Republican, John Reid, has been only narrowly behind Democrat Ghazala Hashmi, another CRM.

In the Attorney General’s race, following the October Surprises against Democrat Jay Jones, incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares has established a RCP poll lead over Jones, 46.8 percent to 43.3 percent. Miyares is leading in all 10 polls in the average, although some by closer margins.

Therefore, putting all these variables together in my model, I unfortunately expect Spanberger to win the Governorship, by a solid margin. I do not expect, however, a double-digit margin. Ghazala Hashmi will more narrowly win the Lt. Gov. position. And Jason Miyares will narrowly win a second term as Attorney General.

Now go out and vote (if you are in these areas).

Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.

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