Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative revival has put the party back at the centre of Britain’s opposition politics.
Polling now shows voters regard the Conservatives as the principal challengers to Andy Burnham and Labour, after the party sharply reduced Reform UK’s lead over the past five months.
One pollster said on Friday night that the “tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics”.
An Ipsos survey found that, following Mrs Badenoch’s energetic party conference performance, the Conservatives had overturned Reform’s 28-point advantage from May. They now lead Mr Farage’s party by three points—35 per cent to 32—marking the first time they have moved ahead of Reform during this Parliament.
Policies including the abolition of inheritance tax on the family home, plans for 50,000 additional prison places and efforts to move more young people into work while reducing the benefits bill have energised Conservative supporters.
The figures suggest the message is also reaching beyond the Tory base. In May, voters who supported Labour at the 2024 general election placed Reform 24 points ahead of the Conservatives as the main opposition. They now give the Tories a 13-point advantage.
The Conservative improvement comes as Reform faces a difficult period, including police investigations into donations and a fresh controversy over racism and sexism.
Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’s director of politics, told the Daily Mail: “We’re seeing consistently over time people increasingly saying it is clear what Kemi stands for, with her ratings improving over time. At the same time, Reform are obviously struggling.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative revival has put the party back at the centre of British opposition politics. Mrs Badenoch is pictured visiting The Malcolm Group in Paisley on Friday
“There’s a sense of a battle for hearts and minds on the Right of British politics, which it very much looked like Reform had won [by May].
“What’s changed since the local elections? Reform has had scandal after scandal, whereas Kemi has looked like a steady pair of hands and people know what she stands for.
“It’s sensible to be cautious—where will we be in November or December? But it’s clear the tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics.”
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, said the result could have a seismic impact on the party’s prospects. He added: “If, particularly in what we have as a multi-party nation where parties are jockeying to be first or second, it’s quite important that in people’s minds you are the prime opposition to the Government.
“The Tories have got to wait another four to six weeks to establish whether their post-conference poll bounce is more than just a bounce.”
He said Reform had been hit by a decline in immigration as the most important issue for voters, as well as falling support for Mr Farage, particularly among middle-class voters. At the same time, he pointed to Mrs Badenoch’s rise and her ability to create some distance between the current Conservative Party and the previous government.
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The Ipsos survey also found growing confidence that Mrs Badenoch could become prime minister, with the figure rising from 24 per cent at the same point last year to 32 per cent.
By contrast, the proportion of voters who believe Mr Farage is likely to enter No 10 has dropped from 50 per cent in May to 33 per cent.
In May, voters who backed Labour at the 2024 general election put Reform 24 points ahead as the main opposition; they now give the Conservatives a 13-point lead. Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham is pictured delivering a speech in Motherwell on Friday
The survey is the latest boost for the Conservatives, after three separate polls this week placed them in second position ahead of Mr Farage’s party. Reform voters also said they approved of Mrs Badenoch’s handling of a dispute involving Suella Braverman over whether only white people can be truly English.
In her keynote speech at the party conference in Birmingham, Mrs Badenoch memorably likened the Conservatives to Marks & Spencer.
She quipped: ‘M&S is a brand that has been around for 100 years. Not so long ago, critics said they were a bit stuffy and stuck in the past. Some were even questioning whether the brand would survive. Do you see where I’m going with this, conference? Now, M&S is back in fashion. Great looks at affordable prices.
‘They have adapted their style for today’s market, and people are flooding back, including me.
‘Just like M&S, we must learn from our mistakes, win back trust, and make people feel good about our party again.’
Meanwhile, Reform has had another tough week dogged with questions about their candidate vetting, after an undercover sting found multiple councillors and candidates expressing racist views and using offensive language.
Mr Farage also remains under investigation by Parliament’s sleaze busters over an undeclared £5million ‘gift’ from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. A decision is expected imminently.
On Friday night one Reform insider said senior party figures now believe they could be heading to just 15 per cent in the polls as soon as next month based on their current trajectory.
Looking ahead to the next general election scheduled for 2029, they added: ‘It’s like being on a coach trip to Portugal, but we’ve run out of petrol in Dover.’
Speaking in Scotland on Friday, Mrs Badenoch said the latest Reform revelations were ‘yet another example of how Reform has a behavioural problem across the entire organisation’.
‘I always say that fish rots from the head, and Nigel Farage, Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice are all under investigation, so it’s no surprise the rest of the party is behaving badly,’ she added.
‘Reform voters are being let down by Reform politicians.’
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