This week’s headlines spotlight two major developments: First, the projected average cost for a family health insurance plan is set to reach $27,000 next year. Secondly, the federal debt has surged at an unprecedented rate, other than during the pandemic, surpassing $38 trillion as of Wednesday.

Both issues pose significant challenges and political risks. However, in the midst of an ongoing government shutdown now stretching into its fourth week, only one is expected to dominate public discourse.

This current shutdown differs in many ways from previous ones over the past 35 years. Unlike before, we have not witnessed a president using a shutdown as a means to dismantle entire federal agencies or so openly targeting the spending priorities of congressional opponents. Furthermore, never before has a president claimed the authority to allocate funds for favored projects without congressional consent. Additionally, there have been notable instances of federal law violations regarding the use of office for political messaging.

Such is the reality during what is being referred to as the “Rosie O’Donnell” shutdown.

Such is life in the Rosie O’Donnell shutdown.

But this “lapse in appropriations” is different in another fundamental way. This is the first-ever truly Democratic shutdown. Democrats have certainly threatened to withhold funding and even toyed with using a debt default as leverage, but it has been Republicans who drove every significant shutdown since 1990. 

This is interesting from a tactical perspective — how mirroring drives parties into methods that had been declared anathema for decades. But there is a more practical consideration, too.

Congressional Republicans have had a variety of specific demands in the past 35 years, but all were variations on the same theme of reducing spending. The first big Democratic shutdown is about increasing spending.

The exception on the Republican side was President Trump’s self-shutdown of 2018 and 2019, in which he refused to sign a funding package that didn’t include additional funding for a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border. But that’s the outlier. The norm since former Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) developed the tool of the weaponized shutdown has been that Republicans refuse to accept a spending deal that they said increases the deficit too much. 

The shutdown most similar to Senate Democrats’ current gambit, Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) 2013 ObamaCare shutdown, did aim at a substantially unrelated policy objective — the repeal of the then-new health insurance program — but the costs of the program were a central point of attack for Cruz and his allies.   

Even when Trump shut the government down himself, he wasn’t asking for more money to be spent; he wanted lawmakers to cut other spending to cover the cost of his project. (After a bipartisan refusal, he went ahead and looted the money from the Pentagon budget, another precedent for his current violations of congressional spending authority.)

So we really are in new territory: stopping government spending to demand more government spending.

One of the disadvantages for Republicans in past shutdowns is that the national debt is like climate change: Voters say they care about it, but most are unwilling to sacrifice anything to address a problem that always seems just over the horizon. That’s the way we ended up with a debt that is eating our government out of house and home. Both parties concluded that fiscal irresponsibility is popular, so they’re both going to stay on the merry-go-round until it falls apart. As the feds approach $1 trillion a year in interest payments, that moment is getting closer all the time. But politicians being politicians, those worries are always put off until after the next election.

The crushing cost of health care, though, is no abstraction for either voters or the politicians who have to face them next year. 

There are a lot of reasons health care costs are skyrocketing, and some are actually good news. As medical science comes up with more ways to help people live longer and better, costs will rise. The advent of weight-loss drugs, for instance, is proving very costly right now but may be offset later on by decreases in chronic illnesses like diabetes.

But a lot of the reason for the rising cost of insurance is a fundamentally broken system.

Republicans would tell you that ObamaCare is to blame, while Democrats would argue that the situation would be even worse without the Affordable Care Act. Whatever spin you prefer, the truth is that in the original and post-ObamaCare systems, the blend of disconnected services and payments, government subsidies and complex, competing regulations has left us with a real rat’s nest of a health insurance regime. It frustrates patients, providers and the employers who are bound to provide coverage.

But just like there’s never a good time to defuse the debt bomb, there’s never a politically appealing moment to actually overhaul the health system. ObamaCare itself, transformative as it was, was more of a patch or a distortion — depending on your point of view — than an overhaul.

So, like the debt won’t get addressed in a grown-up way until there’s a crisis, the health care system won’t ever be allowed to go into a crisis that might lead to some more creative solutions. When voters’ lives and livelihoods are on the line, pricey patches and can-kicking will continue to dominate.

Which is all a long way of saying that in that way, Democrats have already won the shutdown. Whether it ends today or on Nov. 1, when the open enrollment period for health insurance begins in most places, the shutdown will have dramatically increased the pressure on Republicans over rising health costs. The GOP has already agreed to extend enhanced ObamaCare subsidies, but is insisting that the vote will come after the government is reopened, not as a condition for reopening it.

Either way, when they do, Republicans will be acceding to Democrats’ demands to have the government provide more subsidies to offset the consequences of a cost spiral that itself is partly caused by … subsidies.

So Washington’s response to those two big new numbers this week will most assuredly make them both worse.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@THEHILL.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION 

Trump Job Performance

Average Approval: 41 percent

Average Disapproval: 54.4 percent

Net Score: -13.4 points 

Change from last week:  ↑ 1.2 points 

Change from one month ago: ↑ 4.8 points 

[Average includes: Quinnipiac University 40 percent approve – 54 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters 42 percent approve – 56 percent disapprove; American Research Group 37 percent approve – 60 percent disapprove; Gallup 41 percent approve – 54 percent disapprove; Emerson College 45 percent approve – 48 percent disapprove] 

Trump hits second-term low on handling of immigration 

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling immigration?

Approve – Disapprove 

Overall 42 percent – 56 percent

Republicans 80 percent – 18 percent

Democrats 11 percent – 89 percent

Independents 26 percent – 66 percent

[AP-NORC survey of 1,289 adults, Oct. 9-13]

ON THE SIDE: THE NUCLEAR CROCODILES OF SOUTH FLORIDA

Garden&Gun: “Turkey Point lies beyond civilized Miami, if there is such a thing. Twenty-five miles south of the city and as far east of Homestead as you can get without splashing into Biscayne Bay, its engineers oversee the radioactive work of splitting uranium atoms to generate power for nearly a million South Florida homes. These reactors went live in 1972 and 1973 to facilitate the area’s booming population … Back in the era of disco, cocaine cowboys, and Dallas, however, there were no crocodile-infested waters in Florida. … But hope lurked in the shadows of the Turkey Point nuclear power plant—that towering symbol of modernity, built to air-condition the homes that had led to the crocodiles’ demise. … Since that first crocodile nest sighting in 1978, biologists have tagged more than ten thousand hatchings at Turkey Point, whose canal system now hosts the highest density of crocodiles in North America.”

PRIME CUTS 

Poll: Virginia text scandal doesn’t stick to Spanberger: WaPo: “Support for Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones has tumbled among Virginia voters in the wake of a texting scandal that broke three weeks ago, but likely voters have not transferred much support to his opponent — Republican incumbent Jason S. Miyares — and the race is a tie, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll. The scandal has not affected the contest for governor, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger continues to hold a 12-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears despite GOP efforts to tarnish the Democrat for her ballot-mate’s problems. Election Day, Nov. 4, is now less than two weeks away. Jones’s support dropped by five percentage points since last month’s Post-Schar School poll, leaving him and Miyares tied among likely Virginia voters at 46 percent each. In the last poll, Jones had support from 51 percent of likely voters compared with 45 percent for Miyares.”

New Jersey race closer, but Sherrill stays outside the margin of error: The Hill: “New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 5 points in the state’s gubernatorial race, according to a Rutgers University-Eagleton poll released Thursday. Fifty percent of likely voters in the state said they would vote for Sherrill if the election were held Thursday, while Ciattarelli trailed at 45 percent. Another 3 percent said they would vote for neither or someone else and 2 percent said they were unsure. … With Election Day less than two weeks away, most polling has shown a tightening race. The polling average from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 48.6 to 44.6 percent.”

DNC ramps up spending as off-year election polls tighten: The Hill: “The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is ramping up its spending in the upcoming off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as polls tighten ahead of Election Day next month. [The] committee announced it was investing an additional $500,000 into get-out-the-vote operations in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the upcoming consequential state Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania. … The investments bring the DNC’s total spend on the off-year elections to more than $7 million.”

Dem hopefuls turn off-year races into 2028 proving grounds: NBC News: “[Michigan Gov. Gretchen] Whitmer … made her pitch for Rep. Mikie Sherrill to join the ranks of Democratic governors — a speech that also doubled as a potential preview of a Whitmer pitch to lead the Democratic Party. She is among the possible presidential hopefuls hitting the campaign trail in New Jersey and Virginia as Democrats try to chart a path forward after President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore also joined Sherrill over the weekend, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota stumped for Sherrill earlier this month. In Virginia, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is set to appear with former Rep. Abigail Spanberger on Tuesday, while Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear hit the campaign trail in the state last month. There could be more to come before Nov. 4. A spokesperson for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro told Politico that the governor is expected to campaign in neighboring New Jersey.”

Poll says Cuomo could compete in two-man race: WNBC: “A new poll [puts former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo] within the margin of error against Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani in a head-to-head contest. The only problem? There’s a third man in the race. The AARP and Gotham Polling & Analytics survey found Mamdani maintains a double-digit lead over Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. According to the poll, Mamdani holds roughly 43% support of would-be voters, while Cuomo sits at around 29% and Sliwa at 19%. Mamdani does, in fact, lose some ground if Sliwa were to exit the race, the poll found. If that were to happen, Mamdani would grab 44.6% of voters over Cuomo’s 40.7%, resulting in a much tighter race.”

Sliwa stands his ground in final debate: The Hill: “The three candidates in New York City’s mayoral race took to the debate stage for the final time on Wednesday less than two weeks out from Election Day. There was no shortage of fireworks between Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D), former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who’s now running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, with Cuomo and Sliwa frequently ganging up on Mamdani. … The firebrand Republican made it clear he’s not going out without a fight, and he had a number of notable moments during Wednesday’s debate. Sliwa often received applause for his attack lines against Cuomo and Mamdani. At one point, Sliwa accused Cuomo of fleeing his post as governor amid a possible impeachment by the state legislature over sexual harassment allegations. ‘Andrew, you didn’t leave,’ Sliwa said, turning to face Cuomo. ‘You fled from being impeached by the Democrats in the state legislature.’”

SHORT ORDER

‘I am not a secret Nazi’: Graham Platner, progressive Maine Senate hopeful, continues unloading baggage — NYT

Buttttt … Platner led widely in prescandal poll — The Hill

Rep. Jasmine Crockett ‘strongly considering’ entering Texas Democratic Senate primary — Newsweek

It’s official: New Hampshire Republican John E. Sununu seeking Senate return — WMUR

Trump backs Arizona GOP chair for Phoenix-area swing district — The Hill

Former Sheriff Mark Lamb, key figure in effort to overturn 2020 Arizona results, enters House race in deep-red district — KTVK

Trump-endorsed candidate launches primary challenge against Massie — The Hill

Mandela Barnes, who fumbled 2022 Senate chance, floats Wisconsin gubernatorial bid — NYT

Progressive PAC backs controversial former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) in bid to retake seat — Punchbowl News

With Pelosi waiting on retirement choice until after gerrymander vote, her would-be successor treads lightly — WaPo

Virginia enters the gerrymandering fight, looking to add three seats for Dems — NYT

North Carolina Legislature finishes gerrymander aimed at adding GOP seat — WRAL

‘The votes aren’t there for redistricting’: Indiana GOP balks at gerrymander — Indianapolis Star

Illinois Dems shift target in gerrymander — Punchbowl News

TABLE TALK: IN THE PARLANCE OF OUR TIME 

“Oh please, don’t be glazing me here, Zohran” — Republican New York mayoral nominee Curtis Sliwa in the final debate of the race after Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani said Sliwa would be his second choice, after himself, for the job

West Coast toodeloo 

“Trump is looking at numbers, not members. They’re expendable.” — A House Republican operative talking to Puck about the apparent abandonment of an effort to defeat California’s gerrymandering initiative despite former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) initial fundraising blitz, leaving the state’s GOP members to their fates

You should email us! Write to WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@THEHILL.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — at least first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Meera Sehgal, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

FOR DESSERT: PLAY DATE  

KRON: “A wild black bear in Eureka [Calif.] was found inside the Sequoia Park Zoo visiting with the zoo’s three captive bears, officials said Friday. The wild black bear was spotted by zoo staff during a morning inspection of the facility. Officials called the curious bear a ‘polite visitor’ that ‘did not appear aggressive.’ He was observed interacting with resident bears Tule, Ishŭng, and Kunabulilh through their habitat fencing. Officials were puzzled as to how the wild bear made it onto the zoo grounds, as the perimeter fencing was later found to be intact and secure. ‘At no point did the wild bear enter any animal habitats and, after a brief exploration of the enrichment items around the night house, the bear was safely coaxed back into the woods through a service gate,’ the zoo wrote in a Facebook post.”