Democrats are stumbling out of the gate ahead of the Senate elections in 2026, with early retirements stacking the odds against them in the battle for a majority they lost in November’s elections.

New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen on Wednesday became the third Democratic incumbent to announce she would not seek reelection in 2026, following Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith and Michigan Sen. Gary Peters.

Democrats could hold the Senate seats in all three states in 2026, as the party out of the White House historically gained ground in the first midterm election of a president’s term.

But it will certainly be more of an uphill climb without the three incumbents.

Democrats also lost a major recruit for the Michigan race when former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said he would not run for the Senate.

The end result is a map Republicans see as ripe with opportunities, and one where Democrats will be playing some defense.

In addition to defending seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, Democrats will be hoping that Sen. Jon Ossoff can win a second term in Georgia, a state President Trump won in 2024.

Democratic strategists are acknowledging the hurdles, while noting that the midterm history is on their side.

They are hopeful they can go on offense in Maine, a state President Biden won in 2024 where GOP Sen. Susan Collins faces reelection; and North Carolina, where GOP Sen. Thom Tillis is seen as vulnerable.

And they also think that political fortunes will turn on the GOP and Trump.

Jim Demers, a New Hampshire lobbyist and Democratic strategist, said the 2026 Senate map looked like it could be challenging for his party while adding, “Many Republican seats could end up really being in play, because I think voters are starting to get really concerned about what President Trump and Elon Musk are doing.”

“I think there’s a real concern that a lot of voters have that congressional Republicans are just simply rolling over and doing whatever Trump wants without even asking any questions,” he explained. “And I think if that continues, this whole map could look totally different in a few months.”

In New Hampshire, the GOP is hopeful that former Gov. Chris Sununu could get into the race.

The Republican told The Washington Times on Tuesday that he was keeping the door open to a run for Shaheen’s seat after previously saying he had no intention of running for the Senate.

“I have not ruled it out completely, but folks in Washington have asked me to think about it and to consider it, and that is just kind of where I am,” he told the news outlet.

Other Republicans who could join the race could include former Trump ambassador and Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who tried to make a Senate run in neighboring New Hampshire in 2014 and lost.

Brown told The Hill last week that he is thinking about running for the seat. His challenge could be convincing New Hampshire voters he is one of them; though he’s been living in the Granite State for some time, his time representing Massachusetts hangs over him. 

“He’s always been seen as having this Massachusetts style of politics that hasn’t quite resonated with the grassroots,” said Matt Mowers, a New Hampshire Republican strategist and former congressional candidate.

Brown also broke with Trump in 2021 following the Jan. 6 attacks on the Capitol, saying the president “absolutely” bears responsibility for the attack. 

“There’s so much skepticism of him from the base,” Mowers said. 

A source familiar confirmed to The Hill that Mowers himself has also received outreach about running on the Republican side to fill Shaheen’s seat. 

Reps. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) are both considering Senate bids, according to sources who spoke to The Hill. Former Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) told Axios she would consider a run if Pappas doesn’t end up entering the race.

In Michigan, Democrats are brushing off Buttigieg’s decision, arguing it won’t be a huge impediment to holding the seat.

Buttigieg himself has noted that he hasn’t lived in the state for that long, and his decision to sit out this cycle was widely seen as one made with an eye toward the presidential election in 2028.

“No, we have a very deep bench in Michigan, a lot of folks who will make outstanding senators,” Peters told The Hill on Thursday.

“I think [in New Hampshire], there’s a good Democratic bench there as well, and there’s one in Minnesota. So I’m confident we’re going to win all of these states,” he continued.

Minnesota has been a reliably blue state for Democrats in presidential elections, and it hasn’t elected a GOP senator since 2002.

David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, also suggested there were pickup opportunities for the party given the midterm environment.

“This Senate map is ripe with offensive opportunities Democrats can take advantage of, particularly as the midterm backlash builds against Republicans,” he said in a statement. “Open seats in states the GOP hasn’t won in decades don’t change the fundamentals of the cycle: Republicans have more seats to defend, and they’re doing it in a hostile political environment.”