Recent studies indicate that young adults, Black non-Hispanic individuals, and those with mid-range incomes are poised to experience the most significant losses in health insurance coverage if the premium tax credits provided by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are not renewed.

Projections estimate that between 3 million and nearly 5 million people could find themselves without coverage should these credits lapse.

This data stems from a report by the Urban Institute, which predicts a 25% increase in uninsured rates among adults aged 19 to 34, a 30% rise among Black non-Hispanic populations, and a 26% surge among individuals earning between 250% and 400% of the federal poverty level.

These estimates are based on a report by the Urban Institute, which found that uninsurance would rise by 25 percent among adults aged 19 to 34, 30 percent among Black, non-Hispanic people, and 26 percent among those making between 250 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. 

According to Matthew Buettgens, senior fellow in the health policy division at the Urban Institute, young people stand to be most affected because they’re more likely to be working while not receiving health coverage through their employer. 

Although the ACA allows for young adults to remain on their parents’ health insurance until the age of 26, Buettgens noted people who could stay on their parents’ plan were unlikely to have sought coverage through the marketplace. 

He additionally warned that people in states that haven’t expanded Medicaid eligibility are more likely to be impacted as well because the tax credits cover individuals who would otherwise have been covered by Medicaid expansion. 

 And ripple effects from the ACA Marketplace are anticipated. If people are pushed out of the ACA plans, they are more likely to enter the non-group market, which can cause a worsening risk pool for those who don’t get health insurance through Obamacare or an employer. 

Lorelei Salas, former supervision director for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said she’s concerned that people will be pushed towards inferior financial products like junk plans and payday loans to cover their medical costs. 

“A lot of people who are not able to pay those monthly premiums if they double — and then if you actually do have health needs that you cannot wait — you’re going to be on the lookout. You’re going to be searching for something else, for alternatives that are not regulated,” said Salas.