Essential Insights on the Packed NJ Primary Race for Sherrill’s House Seat

In New Jersey, a high-stakes race is underway as eleven candidates compete for the Democratic nomination to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill in Congress. This contest, scheduled for Thursday, stands out primarily due to the significant financial investments made by various groups.

The spotlight is on a few key contenders: former Representative Tom Malinowski, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, former Lieutenant Governor Tahesha Way, and Analilia Mejía, known for her role as a senior aide in Senator Bernie Sanders’s 2020 presidential campaign. These candidates are considered frontrunners in a race characterized by intense competition and substantial campaign expenditures.

A particularly notable development has been the involvement of a super PAC aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group has invested $2.3 million in efforts to discredit Malinowski, a former ally. Their campaign has focused on his historical stock trades and his vote on a 2019 funding package that included allocations for humanitarian aid and several government agencies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The winner of this unusually-timed Thursday primary will face Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the sole Republican contender, in the general election set for April 16. As the primary unfolds, observers will be keenly watching the dynamics and strategies that shape this pivotal race for Sherrill’s congressional seat.

Here’s what to watch for in the crowded Democratic primary for Sherrill’s seat: 

Does Malinowski pull off a win? 

Malinowski, who represented a nearby House district until 2023, is vying to return to Congress again. There hasn’t been much polling on the race, but the 60-year-old has clear name recognition and has also outraised and outspent his rivals.

However, he’s also the target of millions of dollars’ worth of attack ads by United Democracy Project, the super PAC aligned with the pro-Israel AIPAC. 

The attack ads focus on his previous stock trades — Malinowski was being investigated for his stock activity between 2019 and 2020 before his reelection loss capped off the case — and his vote in favor of a 2019 funding bill that coupled humanitarian aid with funding for other agencies such as ICE. 

The former House member in a 2021 interview with the the Office of Congressional Ethics, now the Office of Congressional Conduct, attributed the mistakes to “carelessness,” adding “there is nothing in my financial world that — that I was trying to hide.” He later put his stocks in a blind trust.

Notably, the ads don’t focus on Israel at all — but the super PAC has made clear that it doesn’t agree with Malinowski’s position on conditioning aid for Israel.

“What AIPAC seems to be demanding is just blind, blank check support for the current prime minister,” Malinowski told The Hill in a recent interview.   

“I don’t think that’s what most pro-Israel Jewish Americans want. I don’t think it’s [what] most Israelis want,” he added.

The super PAC hasn’t outlined whom it supports in the primary, though there are several signs that it’s most likely Way. 

Malinowski and other Democrats have suggested the former lieutenant governor is the intended beneficiary. 

Several prominent pro-Israel groups and figures, including the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC and Mark Levenson, a longtime Jewish community leader in the state, have also backed Way. 

“We don’t control outside groups, but we can make sure that every voter in the Eleventh District hears former Lieutenant Governor Way’s winning message and knows she’s the fighter who will lower costs, abolish ICE, defend our democracy from Donald Trump’s attacks, and deliver for New Jersey families in Congress – just like she has before,” Way campaign spokesperson Sophie Mestas said in a statement, when asked about AIPAC’s intended beneficiary. 

Though Democrats caution not to read too much into the results about what the primary could say about the influence of AIPAC, the pro-Israel group has made it clear it’s not shy to wade into hotly contested primaries.  

How do establishment candidates perform vs. progressives?

Though many of the front-runners are largely aligned on the issues, Mejía has stood out as the most outspoken progressive in the race, enjoying endorsements from many prominent figures such as Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D).

Gothamist noted the other front-runners have also received some support from progressives or aligned factions of the party — for instance, Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) has backed Malinowski, and state Sen. Britnee Timberlake (D) has backed Gill. 

While a number of progressives across the country have enjoyed large fundraising hauls over the last year, Mejía still lags behind some of her competitors. A preprimary campaign filing shows the former Sanders campaign official raised a total of $417,000 as of Jan. 16 and had about $358,000 in the bank. 

Meanwhile, Malinowski has raised roughly $1.1 million between October and Jan. 16, with more than $400,000 in the bank. Gill had raised close to $655,000 as of Jan. 16 and had about $347,000 in cash at the end. Those figures don’t factor in super PAC spending to support the two men. 

The fundraising also speaks to the makeup of the district, which previously elected the more centrist Sherrill. 

What does turnout say about Dem enthusiasm? 

While observers may be hesitant to read too much into the primary’s voter turnout — after all, it’s taking place on a Thursday, not a Tuesday, and is happening earlier than usual in the election cycle — there is still some information that can be gleaned from the results. 

For one, Democrats have been riding high amid surging voter enthusiasm over the past year, leading to a number of overperformances and surprise wins, including most recently in Texas. There, Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a heavily pro-Trump district, prompting fresh concerns from Republicans about what the results could mean for them in November.  

Some political observers have noted the congressional district is seeing a high early voter turnout. High engagement in the race would bode well for Democrats, signaling the party base remains engaged even well out before the November elections.  

The race is also no sure thing for either party heading into April: Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by just shy of 9 points in 2024, suggesting the GOP has a shot at flipping the seat.

The general election in April will also have implications for the Republicans’ one-seat House majority. Georgia is also holding a special election in mid-March for former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R) seat, though it’s expected to head into a runoff in April.