France is concerned that Germany’s still-unclear plans for using long-range missiles in a conflict with Russia could increase the risk of Europe being drawn into a nuclear confrontation.
French officials are consulting their German counterparts to establish how Berlin would conduct deep precision strikes and to coordinate military strategies should Europe enter a direct war with Moscow, according to six officials cited by the Financial Times.
One source said there was concern that conventional attacks on Russian targets could trigger what Moscow considers grounds for a nuclear response.
“If the Russians fail to interpret the signal correctly, you could cross the nuclear threshold without even realising it,” he said.
The discussions come as France, Germany, Britain, Poland and several Nordic and Baltic countries seek to expand their long-range strike capabilities, with the war in Ukraine nearing its fifth year.
European anxiety over a possible confrontation with Russia has also grown amid questions about the reliability of US support. Those concerns intensified after Donald Trump agreed a controversial diesel deal with Vladimir Putin and criticised Volodymyr Zelensky for continuing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Germany has taken a leading role in Europe’s rearmament drive and is developing ground-launched missiles capable of travelling as far as 2,000km (1,243 miles). Such weapons could allow Berlin to strike targets deep within Russian territory.
France is now seeking greater clarity over when those missiles might be deployed and what form of retaliation Germany would expect from Moscow, including the possibility of a nuclear response.
A Russian missile is launched during a military exercise in the Barents Sea
A model of a Predator Hawk tactical ballistic missile is displayed at the Berlin Security Conference in Berlin, Germany, on November 3
Germany is preparing to spend €780billion (£652billion) on defence over the five years to 2030. French officials want the two countries to bring their nuclear policies into closer alignment.
However, they fear Russia could hold France responsible for any strikes because of Emmanuel Macron’s policy of “forward deterrence”.
In March, Macron said France needed to reinforce its nuclear deterrent in response to a growing range of threats. He argued that the country’s strategy should take account of security across Europe while preserving French sovereignty, describing this approach as “forward deterrence”.
He said the world had reached a dangerous geopolitical turning point and that the situation justified strengthening France’s defence model.
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Macron also described Russia’s war against Ukraine as a slow and brutal conflict posing a major threat to Europe.
He accused Moscow of pursuing an aggressive imperial and revisionist agenda while continuing to develop new weapons despite already possessing a large nuclear arsenal.
Those weapons, he said, included hypersonic nuclear missiles, nuclear-powered systems with potentially unlimited range, nuclear torpedoes and a particularly dangerous proposal involving the deployment of nuclear weapons in space.
Macron stressed that France’s policy would remain defensive, reject the idea of nuclear war and maintain a deliberate separation between conventional and nuclear operations.
Helsing’s AD-1 Inferno drone missile interceptor is displayed at the defence technology start-up’s headquarters in Munich, Germany, on October 29
A source told the FT that France had developed what he called a “nuclear grammar and vocabulary” — a set of largely unspoken rules governing how such threats and responses are communicated.
But he argued that Europe would be safer if those principles were clearly and publicly defined, reducing the risk that Russia could misread a warning or misunderstand an operation.
A senior German official said Berlin strongly agreed that European allies needed a shared doctrine and a common understanding of how escalation might unfold.
A British official said Germany’s strategic culture was changing rapidly and that its allies should welcome the shift.
Britain is also discussing a joint wartime plan with Germany while developing its own long-range weapons, which are expected to have a range of up to 2,000km (1,243 miles).
The missiles would be intended for deep precision strikes designed to weaken Russia’s ability to conduct war, including attacks on command centres, supply networks and ammunition depots.
The British official said Nato remained aware of the need to avoid actions that could provoke a nuclear response from Moscow.
His comments followed a warning from German General Ingo Gerhartz that Nato members must consult one another before launching deep precision strikes. Russia, he said, would likely hold the entire alliance responsible for an attack carried out by any single member.