Ernest Hemingway once eloquently described the onset of bankruptcy as occurring “gradually, then suddenly.” This description aptly applies to dictatorships, which often maintain an aura of stability until a sudden collapse reveals the truth. This pattern is strikingly evident in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where a 46-year reign has been marked by corruption, brutality, and mismanagement.

Recently, Iran’s severe water crisis has garnered international attention. President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a stark warning about the possibility of water rationing in Tehran, as several key reservoirs in the city have dwindled to less than ten percent capacity.

The regime attributes this crisis to uncontrollable natural phenomena, yet experts largely blame human factors. Decades of poor management, along with dam-building and water diversion projects spearheaded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have exacerbated the situation. Though droughts are indeed occurring, the disastrous scope of the problem is largely of the regime’s own making.

READ MORE: The End Is Near. Tehran Faces Evacuation As Water Supplies Reach Zero and the City Sinks Into the Desert.

The water crisis is merely one of many challenges Iran faces. Recent protests have erupted due to shortages of fuel and electricity, while the economy teeters on the brink of collapse. Unemployment rates are climbing, public services are deteriorating, and environmental degradation is accelerating. In November, wildfires devastated parts of the ancient Hyrcanian Forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site sheltering endangered species. Despite these crises, the regime continues to invest heavily in the IRGC, missile development, regional militias, and surveillance systems aimed at quashing internal dissent, even as half of the adult population struggles to find meaningful employment.

And the water crisis is only one among many. Fuel and electricity shortages have sparked protests. The economy is collapsing. Unemployment is soaring. Public services are failing. The environment is deteriorating at an alarming pace. A wildfire razed portions of the ancient Hyrcanian Forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site home to many endangered species, in November. Meanwhile, half the adult population lacks meaningful work, yet the regime pours billions into the IRGC, missile programs, regional militias, and vast surveillance networks designed to suppress domestic dissent.

This convergence of crises lays bare a truth that the overwhelming majority of Iranians have long understood: the ruling elite sees government not as a vehicle for public service, but as an apparatus for oppressive domination. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his loyalists view power as something to be hoarded, not exercised for the public good. Their instinct is not to solve crises but to weaponize them.

We in the United Kingdom—and in other democracies—recognize that the role of government is to serve and empower its people. The Iranian people understand this as well, and for years they have been working to reclaim their country and build a secular, democratic republic grounded in the rule of law and equal rights for every citizen.

This was made unmistakably clear at a landmark gathering in Washington, D.C. last month, when more than 1,000 Iranian American activists convened to discuss regime change and the path toward a democratic future. I had the privilege of addressing the event and listening to voices from across the Iranian diaspora—women, youth, academics, former political prisoners—all united around Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan for a free, democratic Iran.

One essential component of this movement, often under-reported in Western media, is the work of the PMOI/MEK Resistance Units inside Iran. These are organized, disciplined, and increasingly bold networks of men and women who carry out acts of civil defiance, sabotage the regime’s repressive infrastructure, and keep the flame of nationwide resistance alive despite extraordinary personal risk. Their activities range from disrupting state propaganda broadcasts to torching symbols of the regime’s authority and organizing protests. The existence and vivid expansion of the Resistance Units demonstrate both the depth of public opposition and the presence of a highly organized alternative to clerical rule.

This reality also exposes the hollowness of claims by Reza Pahlavi—the so-called “baby shah”—that he represents the Iranian people’s future. The Iranian public has firmly rejected both the monarchy and the theocracy. The youth driving today’s resistance have no interest in replacing one form of dictatorship with another. They want democracy, not dynastic nostalgia; accountability, not inherited power. The streets of Iran have spoken clearly: the future will not be authored by exiled pretenders to a throne that was in the dustbin of history in 1979 for its brutality and rampant corruption. 

The Washington meeting featured discussions on the role of women, youth, minorities, and scientists. Each conversation made clear that Iran’s multiple crises have united diverse groups behind a common goal. That unity has been visible in the country’s three nationwide uprisings since 2018, culminating in the 2022 uprising —the greatest challenge to the regime since 1979. It took extraordinary brutality to suppress it, and the crackdown continues. More than 3,000 people have been executed in the past three years. At least 17 PMOI members now sit on death row. And in July, a regime-aligned outlet openly called for a repeat of the 1988 massacre of political prisoners that claimed 30,000 lives, 90 percent of them PMOI activists.

The regime’s obsession with annihilating the PMOI is the clearest indication of where it perceives the real threat. And it is right to be afraid. Its crises are multiplying. Its legitimacy is gone. And Iranians are openly expressing confidence in the NCRI’s ability to guide a democratic transition.

As international media continue to cover Iran’s water, economic, and political crises, they must also grapple with an unavoidable conclusion: if these trends continue, regime change in Iran is not only possible, but inevitable. Dictatorships fall the way Hemingway described—gradually, then suddenly. Iran is already deep into the “gradually” phase. The “suddenly” may come sooner than many expect.

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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