Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads in a hypothetical gubernatorial primary in her home state of California, according to a new poll, but half of voters say they do not think she should enter the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

The survey from Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill found 31 percent of those who plan to vote in the nonpartisan primary would pick Harris if she runs. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), who has already launched a bid, comes in second with 8 percent support.

Nearly 4 in 10 voters, 39 percent, are undecided in the race more than a year out from the primary. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco pulled in 4 percent support, while more than a dozen other names tested got 2 percent or less each.

Harris is viewed as the clear frontrunner for governor should she enter the race, but the poll found some reticience among voters. Fifty-percent in the poll said the former California state attorney general and U.S. senator should run for governor, while 50 percent said she shouldn’t.

That divide comes as the former vice president is also showing up in early polling as a top potential presidential candidate for Democrats in 2028 should she launch a third White House bid.

Harris has yet to signal her plans but said earlier this month that she’s “not going anywhere.” She’s reportedly aiming to decide on a gubernatorial campaign by the end of summer.

Until then, some observers have seen the field as effectively frozen as donors and candidates ready for her potential entry.

“How competitive the 2026 gubernatorial primary in California depends on whether or not Harris runs — other candidacies, like Katie Porter’s, are contingent on whether or not the former Vice President enters the race,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a release.

Without Harris in the running, Porter’s support among Democrats climbs from 13 percent to 21 percent — underscoring the impact Harris’s decision could have on the contest.

Democrats are expected to hold onto the seat in the blue stronghold state next year.

Former Biden Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra earlier this month joined Poter, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Senate Leader Toni Atkins (D), and former state Controller Betty Yee (D) among the Democratic contenders. 

California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) in February decided against a run for governor and told Politico he’d support Harris if she ran, saying her candidacy “would be field-clearing.” On the Republican side, President Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell has said he “may not be able to resist” running if Harris gets in.

The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted April 12-14 among 1,000 registered California voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The 2026 hypothetical primary question, including only those who said they would vote in the primary, had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.