By Theresa Payton

Though it appears Iran’s kinetic capacities are dwindling, the country is expected to retaliate against Israel’s missile strikes with cyber operations — and these could extend to American targets. Because AI innovation shifts the nature of hacking, cyber-physical warfare, impersonating officials, and major data breaches, we must quickly integrate these new technologies as well as other digital security practices into our defenses.

Hackers linked to Iran and other foreign governments are using new AI technology to bolster their cyberattacks against the United States, Israel, and other global targets. It was revealed in January by Google’s cyber-threat experts that dozens of hacking groups in more than 20 countries turned to Google’s Gemini chatbot to assist with malicious code writing, hunts for publicly known cyber vulnerabilities, and research into organizations to target for attack, among other tasks. As Americans continue to adapt to the pace of AI development, it’s important to consider means of protecting citizens with both individual digital practices and national defense strategies. 

AI’s integration into warfare is multifaceted. Not only does it introduce a new dimension of hacking attacks, but also, for example, Israel’s drone parts smuggling reshapes cyber-physical warfare. Israel’s reported infiltration of drone parts into Iran’s drones marks a bold leap in hybrid warfare. This fusion of covert hardware and digital precision redefines espionage and supply chain security. Iran could decide to use voice cloning and deepfakes to pretend to be high-ranking government officials, tricking unsuspecting Americans into giving access to information they would never willingly give over to Iranian operatives.

Large-scale data breaches remain a serious concern as well. Though kinetic actions dominate the current crisis, Iran’s cyber past — (disrupting 1,000 dissidents in 2021, targeting Israeli data in 2023) — foreshadows potential escalation. Iran’s APT35 group exploits digital footprints such as targeting people on dating platforms or creating fake job sites. The U.S. must brace for a cyber dimension that could emerge rapidly in this volatile conflict.

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More traditional theaters of war might understandably consume the concerns of national security officials and everyday Americans. We have a more robust cultural understanding of kinetic military campaigns and their potential impacts than of cyber attacks, particularly ones that utilize newer technologies like AI. But these newer tools will not be overlooked by those who seek to do harm. We must be prepared.

My bold prediction: Iran’s history of cyberattacks signals it could pivot to the U.S. amid tensions. In August 2024, Iran’s hackers spear-phished a U.S. presidential campaign official, aiming to influence elections, per FBI reports. Iran could escalate by targeting U.S. critical infrastructure — energy or finance — using AI-driven phishing to exploit digital footprints, as 91 percent of cyberattacks begin with phishing (2023 Verizon DBIR). Especially as Iranian kinetic options become increasingly limited, we need to be vigilant and ready for Iran to make a move like this.

AI opens up opportunities in many facets of life and industry, which, for better and for worse, includes warfare. What can never get lost is the essential duty that technology like AI has to serve human interests. America’s national security institutions should prepare to use the latest and best technology to protect our digital infrastructure and, thus, our people.