Letitia James, who rose to prominence through her legal pursuits against others, now finds herself on the other side of the law. Her challenges extend beyond the courtroom, however, entering the realm of politics as well.

Despite New York’s reputation as a Democratic stronghold, the political landscape presents a more significant threat to James than many analysts might predict. Even if she manages to clear her name of the federal mortgage fraud allegations, her political future remains uncertain.

The last time New York elected a Republican to the attorney general’s office was in 1994, underscoring its Democratic leanings. Yet, the state’s political allegiance is not as steadfast as it once was. Notably, former President Trump achieved substantial electoral improvements in New York during the 2024 election, surpassing Republican performances in other states. His vote tally in New York City was the highest for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush.

Although Letitia James emerged victorious in her latest election, her win was not commanding. She secured around 55 percent of the vote, a decline from the over 60 percent she garnered in her 2018 debut as attorney general. This outcome is less than impressive for a Democratic incumbent in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one.

Following her indictment, James has found support among New York Democrats, who have rallied to her side. Local Democratic leaders have organized gatherings to back the attorney general, and the indictment has even spurred her most successful day of fundraising to date.

That might seem like a show of political strength, but will it last? New York Democrats are notoriously fratricidal. Both of James’s 2026 running mates, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D), already face primary opponents — two in DiNapoli’s case. If it looks like James will be convicted of mortgage fraud, it’s hard to imagine an ambitious, opportunistic Democrat not jumping into a primary against the incumbent attorney general.

The biggest contest on the 2025 ballot in the Empire State is the race for New York City mayor. Regardless of who becomes the new occupant of Gracie Mansion, it’s likely to be a political detriment to Letitia James’ reelection prospects.

James had originally endorsed the mayoral candidacy of New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. But before the outcome of the Democratic mayoral primary had been finalized, James threw her support to socialist State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. Since Mamdani’s surprise primary win, James has been more vocal in her support of the lefty hipster’s candidacy than almost any other high-profile elected official in the Empire State. Hochul, for instance, didn’t endorse Mamdani until September. Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader and New York’s senior senator, still hasn’t announced his backing of Mamdani.

James’s embrace of the young socialist’s mayoral candidacy is a double-edged sword. Although her support undoubtedly bolsters her already strong credibility with the far left of the New York Democratic Party, it is hard to see how it will help her with the more moderate general electorate in 2026.

If either of the other two major candidates for New York City mayor is victorious, it’s likely to be equally detrimental to James’ reelection. Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic governor who is now running for mayor as an independent, is a longstanding foe of the attorney general. He continues to blame James for his forced 2021 resignation as governor. Should he be elected mayor tomorrow, it’s a safe bet that he would use his political cache to undermine James’s reelection efforts. And as unlikely as it may be, a win by Republican Curtis Sliwa, would instantly make him a major player in state politics and position him to stymie James’s 2026 campaign.

As her lawyers prepare a defense, most of the media coverage of Letitia James in the months ahead will focus on the attorney general’s legal troubles and the likelihood of her conviction on federal mortgage fraud charges. But James’s political troubles — even in a traditionally Democratic stronghold like New York — may prove to be just as perilous. Legal commentators will speculate on what the jurors in her trial are thinking; political junkies would be wise to keep an eye on what New York voters make of James.

Joe Burns is a partner with the Holtzman Vogel law firm, with a focus on election cases in New York State. He previously served as deputy director of election operations at the New York State Board of Elections.