The shootings of two Democratic lawmakers in Minnesota are the latest incidents to raise worries about the threat of political violence in the U.S.

Experts warn that the attacks, which follow an assassination attempt against President Trump and an arson at the home of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), are part of a broader pattern of political violence that could be on the rise amid heightened polarization as the midterms near.

“Each act has its own unique horror about it, and the details are uniquely awful. But in terms of the big picture, it’s the latest in what’s become a pattern of politically motivated attacks,” said Matt Dallek, a George Washington University historian and professor.

“For decades, we’ve been living in an era of partisan polarization, and the polarization has gotten worse over time, and that means that the general political climate has also coarsened and become more toxic.” 

Minnesota state Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman (D) and her husband, Mark Hortman, were killed in their home on Saturday in what the acting U.S. attorney for the District of Minnesota labeled “a political assassination” and “the stuff of nightmares.” State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette Hoffman, were also shot and seriously injured. 

A specific ideological motivation remains unclear, but officials revealed that the now-arrested suspect had traveled to the homes of additional Minnesota state politicians and filled notebooks with dozens of additional lawmakers’ names. 

The tragedy underscored the threat environment for political figures at all levels. It came just a few weeks after an arson attack at the Pennsylvania governor’s residence, in which the suspect who set the fire the night after a Passover Seder allegedly “harbored hatred” against Shapiro, according to officials.

Last year, then-candidate Trump was grazed by a bullet when a gunman attempted to assassinate him at a small-town Pennsylvania campaign rally. In 2022, Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) husband was wounded by an assailant looking for the then-Speaker. In April of that same year, a man pleaded guilty to an attempted assassination of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“We saw a lot of political violence in the ’60s and ’70s and even in the ’80s, and then they kind of disappeared in the ’90s and 2000s. And so this feels different, having a number of instances in the past year or so,” said Jillian Peterson, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at Minnesota’s Hamline University and executive director of the Violence Prevention Project. 

Direct cause-and-effect lines are hard to draw, but the latest incidents come against a backdrop of intense political polarization and increasingly toxic rhetoric on the national stage. 

“We see increasing demonization and delegitimizing political rivals. We see increasing language that portray political rivals as an existential threat to the nation, for democracy and so on. We see increasing … animosity towards people who hold different political views,” said Arie Perliger, an expert on political violence and extremism at the University of Massachusetts Lowell.

As discourse becomes more virulent, political figures are increasingly perceived as “symbols” of policy and ideas, Perliger said, noting that Trump has been “a major factor” in fostering that perception.

Trump has repeatedly hurled names and insults onto the political stage, casting rivals as enemies and taking heat for dehumanizing language against immigrants. Across the aisle, Democrats have pitched Trump and Republican policies as a threat to democracy.

“If you are consistently portraying the other side as a threat, it’s no wonder that eventually there’s some people who take that to the point where they say, ‘OK, if the other side is a threat, violence against the other side is justified. That’s the only way to save the country,’” Perliger said. “I think both sides could learn from becoming much more responsible.”

In the wake of the Minnesota shootings, Trump joined a chorus of condemnation from both sides of the aisle, saying “such horrific violence will not be tolerated” in the U.S. 

Former President Biden said “this heinous attack motivated by politics should never happen in America.” Former Vice President Kamala Harris urged that “the hate and division that dominate our political discourse must end.” House GOP Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) stressed that “no public official — or any American — should fear for their safety in their own home.” Others have called to turn down the temperature. 

But the flood of condemnation that comes after violent incidents, experts said, doesn’t offset divisive political rhetoric year-round. 

The current moment seems to lack “a particularly serious effort to seek any sort of reconciliation or unity or sustained condemnation of this kind of violence,” said Dallek. He pointed out that Trump has said he won’t call Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) in the wake of the incident, knocking the blue state leader as “whacked out.”  

There’s also a growing cultural normalization of violence across the board.

Back in December, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot and killed in New York City. This week, a satirical musical based on Luigi Mangione, the 26-year-old charged with the killing, opened in San Fransisco. 

“I’m not sure if it’s a great thing to make people who are murderers cultural heroes. I don’t think it’s the best idea, as much as we can have different views about their motivations and so on,” said Perliger.

And among Trump’s first moves of his second term were sweeping pardons for hundreds convicted in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

Though details are still unfolding about the Minnesota shootings, they raise warning signs and security concerns for political figures ahead of what’s set to be a high-stakes midterm fight for both parties. 

The risk goes up “the more that these types of really heated or hate-filled types of political rhetoric make it into the public sphere — and of course, during election cycles that happens more,” said Peterson. 

“It’s sort of that violence begets violence, and so if we don’t start to really tone down the rhetoric … I think it’s time to really take that seriously as we move into this next election cycle,” she said.