Israel is gearing up for a potential new offensive against Iran as early as late August or before December, with both sides preparing for a more violent clash than their June conflict, raising alarms that the United States will once again be pressured into responding and entangling itself in yet another Middle Eastern war it can ill afford.

Why it matters: This escalating tension threatens to pull the US into a prolonged and costly conflict, draining resources and exposing vulnerabilities in missile stockpiles, all while distracting from domestic priorities and risking broader regional instability that could affect global energy markets and security.

Driving the news: As Israel signals plans for a new strike on Iran, Tehran vows a swift and forceful counterattack, setting the stage for a conflict that could again force the US to intervene to protect its ally.

• Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, have warned of imminent conflict to block Iran’s nuclear ambitions, relying on US-supplied missile defenses.
• Trump’s response may decide the next war’s scope, as his limited strikes sparked MAGA infighting and exposed US missile shortages.
• The US faces pressure to replenish Israel’s missile interceptors, with 25% of its THAAD stockpile already depleted in the June war.

Catch up quick: Israel’s June strikes on Iran aimed to weaken its nuclear program and shift regional power dynamics but achieved only partial success, failing to draw full US commitment or collapse the Iranian regime. Instead, it bolstered Iranian nationalism and exposed gaps in Israeli defenses. Trump limited US involvement to avoid escalation, but the cease-fire left unresolved tensions.

The intrigue: Despite Israel’s partial victories, such as temporarily disrupting Iranian command, the war paradoxically strengthened Iran’s regime by rallying public support and highlighting deficiencies in its deterrence, prompting Tehran to prepare for a swift, overwhelming counterstrike in any future round to prevent Israel from establishing long-term dominance through repeated attacks.

Between the lines: Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy of preventive strikes aims to maintain military superiority, but it risks trapping the US in an endless cycle of intervention, as limited engagements fail to resolve underlying issues and invite further escalation.

The bottom line: As Israel eyes another strike to prevent Iran from rebuilding, the US faces mounting pressure to intervene again, but succumbing to this could ignite a full-scale war far costlier than past engagements, underscoring the need for Washington to resist entanglement in yet another foreign conflict that serves allied interests over American ones and prioritize diplomatic off-ramps to avoid endless escalation.