GOP strategist Karl Rove weighed in on the looming government shutdown, saying the American public will lose trust in Washington if lawmakers continue to clash over policy issues, including health care.

“But no matter what, the biggest shutdown loser will likely be public trust in Washington writ large,” Rove wrote Wednesday in an op-ed published by the Wall Street Journal. “Voters see shutdowns as the result of gross incompetence by our leaders.”

He pointed to Pew Research Center’s National Election Study that over the years has shown a 51 percent drop in voters’ trust in the federal government. The study began in 1958.

“Washington’s inability to get its fiscal house in order is a big reason why,” Rove wrote, referencing the drop in confidence. “Sadly, Washington doesn’t seem to have learned how to avoid shutdowns. But the politics of it are ever surprising.”

Senate Democrats last month blocked a GOP-led stopgap funding plan that would have funded the government through Nov. 21, citing concerns over Medicaid cuts and expiring subsidies in the Affordable Care Act, as well as lack of input from the left.

Trump in response cancelled an expected meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.). He described their requests as “unserious and ridiculous.”

Rove noted that a shutdown is only beneficial to the party that has the upper hand. The outcome, he said, will depend on three factors.

“First, which side gets their way and therefore looks stronger, as [former President] Clinton did in 1996. Second, which party makes a better case to voters and energizes its coalition, as the GOP did in 2014 and Democrats in 2020,” he wrote. “Third, whether other issues loom larger in the nearly 14 months between now and the midterm elections.”

The strategist added, “In our chaotic politics, it’s likely something will.”

Rove also pointed to the first Trump administration for the most recent example of a funding lapse’s impact on an election cycle, when the government was shut down for more than 30 days.

“The fallout from the most recent big shutdown was mixed. It ran from Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019, and came down to President Trump’s border wall funding,” he wrote. “Democrats opposed it. The shutdown ended with Mr. Trump signing a continuing resolution that sidestepped his issue.”

“Mr. Trump’s approval dipped from 39% before the shutdown to 37% during, but rebounded to 44% by Feb. 1. Still, he lost the 2020 election,” he continued. “Republicans gained 13 House seats, but Democrats picked up four Senate seats and control of the upper chamber.”

Lawmakers have until Sept. 30 to avoid a shutdown. Any measure that passes would require the support of at least a handful of Democrats.