Nearly half a million people could die as a consequence of a Super El Niño, according to a new report.
Researchers at the University of Chicago used climate models to assess the potential impact of the extreme climate event.
Their projections estimate that 451,000 people could lose their lives, including 239,000 deaths in the next six months alone.
‘The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a “postcard from the future”: while they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future,’ the researchers warned.
‘Mortality projections for the near term provide a signal of where we are headed if new adaptation investments do not materialise.
‘The difference with climate change is that there is more time to undertake adaptations to save lives.’
Researchers estimate that 451,000 people could die, with 239,000 deaths projected during the next six months
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that warms surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean above average levels
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that influences weather across the globe and temporarily raises worldwide temperatures.
The current event began in June and is expected to continue into next year. Scientists say it has been intensifying at an unprecedented rate.
The study suggests that countries in the global south will record the highest number of heat-related deaths over the coming six months.
Across the Sahel, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, an estimated 66,800 additional heat-related deaths could occur between September and February compared with a typical year.
In South-East Asia, excess heat is projected to result in an additional 19,400 deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, along with 19,300 more deaths in Indonesia.
India could see a further 15,800 deaths, while Brazil is projected to experience 13,300 additional heat-related fatalities.
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The timing of these deaths is expected to differ significantly from one country to another, according to the researchers.
‘Those countries projected to see the largest number of excess heat-related deaths in the latter half of our forecast period – allowing more time to act – include Nigeria and Indonesia, which will face 15,400 and 10,400 more heat deaths than normal between December and February, respectively, and Brazil and India, which we project to see 8,000 and 7,400 additional heat-related deaths, respectively, over that three month period,’ they said.
Scientists project that global land temperatures could reach 1.2C (2.1F) above normal in the coming months, largely because of the Super El Niño
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Beyond February, the researchers warn that heat-related deaths could increase across the Northern Hemisphere.
They added: ‘We will provide updated, interactive forecasts pinpointing where heat-related deaths are likely to be concentrated and shift over time, giving decision-makers what they need to target interventions in real time through this period.’
Based on the findings, the researchers are calling for urgent action in areas flagged as high risk for heat deaths.
‘Some solutions already exist,’ they said, highlighting things like early warning systems, expanded water availability and wider access to cooling technologies.
However, they point out that many of these solutions have only been tested in specific regions.
They added: ‘We need to build the evidence base now for what works, and then invest in preparations and planning.
‘Preparing for a hotter future will require a far more granular, continually updated understanding of what saves lives across different regions, climates, and health systems.’