Recent data from the Kalshi prediction market reveals a troubling trend for Democrats: over the past six months, their likelihood of reclaiming the House of Representatives has been steadily diminishing.

Kalshi operates as a federally sanctioned financial exchange that specializes in prediction markets, where participants can trade “event contracts” linked to real-world outcomes. Essentially, it’s a platform where users can profit from forecasting future events.

One such forecast revolves around which party will control the House following the 2026 midterm elections, generating considerable interest. The latest statistics should give Democrats pause for concern.

Back on April 11th, Kalshi recorded the Democrats with an 83.8 percent probability of securing House control, while the Republicans were pegged at a mere 16.3 percent. These figures represented the peak and trough for each party at that point.

Since then, the Democrats have seen a significant decline in their prospects. Their current odds have plummeted to 62.6 percent, marking a notable 21.2 percentage point decrease.

Since then, the downward slope for the Democrats has been pretty pronounced on their charts. As of today, the Democratic odds have dropped to 62.6 percent—a 21.2 percentage point drop.

CNN data guru Harry Enten delivered the bad news for the obstructionist party (good news for America) this morning, pointing out that their chances of gaining control of the key chamber of Congress are sinking faster than the Titanic.

Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months…

Why?

1. Dems aren’t keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot.

2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting. pic.twitter.com/iauGwkTmp2

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2025

READ MORE: Dems Continue to Flounder on Top Issues As GOP Support Grows—Even on Gun Control

‘What Are You Doing Democrats?!’ New Survey Crushes Narrative Republicans Are in Trouble for Midterms

“We were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to the Kalshi Prediction Market odds,” Enten said of the April numbers. “We saw them at an 83 percent chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down.”

“Now we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances — up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance.”

Simply brutal. Not to mention, this is a significant blow to the narrative that the Trump GOP is headed for disaster in the midterms. Yes, the odds are still in the opposition’s favor, but this is a significant downward trend for them.

Enten went on to point out that Democrats are lagging behind their own pace on the generic congressional ballot during Trump’s first midterm elections. Worse, the redistricting battle could yield several seats for the GOP.

“If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats,” he said, adding that the Supreme Court’s actions on the Voting Rights Act going forward could exacerbate that. “If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats.

“It’s a different new landscape.”

Isn’t everything in the Trump era a whole new landscape?

RedState’s Nick Arama provides a further breakdown of the redistricting battle, which spells doom for Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, AOC, and their allies. It’s worse than Enten suggests, with Politico warning that the total number of seats could be as many as 27.

The latest bad news comes as a Reuters/Ipsos poll from last month shows that the Democrats are being pilloried on key issues. In that poll, the party lags behind the GOP on a plethora of matters, including crime, immigration, foreign policy, and the economy. 

They even trail in regards to gun control and political extremism.

Reuters poll on which political party Americans think has a better plan to deal with the following issues:

Crime: Republicans +20
Immigration: R +18
Foreign conflict: R +12
Economy: R +10
Corruption: R+6
Gun control: R+4
Political extremism: R+4

Democrats are in big trouble pic.twitter.com/rG8L4PMuJz

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 24, 2025

If Republicans maintain control of the House for Trump’s last two years of his second term, it’s difficult to fathom the depths of despair the Democrat party will plunge into.

Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.