Starting a family is expensive. Two of our four kids have families, three kids each. When they were contemplating children, their mother and I advised them, “If you wait until you can afford a child, you’ll never have one.” People starting a family are generally young, generally struggling up the first few rungs of the employment ladder, and occasionally are on the ramen/peanut butter diet for days and weeks at a time.

Prices in baby goods – car seats, strollers, disposable diapers, cribs, and so on – can hit a young family pretty hard.

A lot of those baby goods are made in China. And the trade squabbles between the United States and China are starting to make themselves felt in the baby-goods market. And that presents an interesting dilemma for the Trump administration.

This time, the White House has made no such exceptions, despite lobbying from House Democrats, manufacturers and trade groups. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, during a congressional hearing Wednesday, said an exemption for car seats and other children’s necessities is “under consideration,” though he did not offer details on timing.

There are a couple of things to consider here.

On the one hand, any price rise from tariffs will indeed hit the young parents more than their elders. An exemption from the China tariffs on baby car seats, bottles, diapers, strollers, and so on could not only help these young families financially, but could also make it easier to procure the essentials for an infant’s safety (like, say, car seats) and so on.

On the other hand, China is showing signs of slipping. Factories are closing down. The Chinese people are taking to the streets. President Trump may well see this as the time to bear down hard, to take advantage of the primary leverage we have with China: They need us more than we need them.

If President Trump decides to exempt some products, as he did in his first term, it would help some members of a valuable constituency – yes, that’s a political consideration, but that’s part of the game. But China may see that as America backing down.

If President Trump decides to stay the course, some young families may find their diaper bill going up, but Chairman Xi’s feet will still be held to that fire, and it may drive China to a trade deal more advantageous for us.