House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., challenged election forecasts favoring Democrats during an appearance Sunday on FNC’s “Fox News Sunday,” repeating his assertion that the polling behind those projections is flawed.
Johnson attributed the results to what he called “faulty analysis.”
Host Shannon Bream cited Fox News’ latest House power rankings, which place 219 seats in the solidly Democratic column and 198 in the solidly Republican column, leaving 18 races classified as toss-ups. She noted that the network’s election-night scenarios showed Democrats winning as many as 237 seats in a strong performance, while a favorable night for Republicans would still leave Democrats with 219 seats—enough to retain the majority. “You say those predictions are wrong. Why?” Bream asked.
“Those polls are wrong. They’re based on faulty analysis,” Johnson responded. He pointed to reports that two national polling organizations had recently been exposed for allegedly fraudulent numbers and said more established pollsters were acknowledging that Republicans had been underrepresented in their samples. Johnson cited a CNN report stating that 14 of the previous 16 October polls in relevant races had undersampled Republicans by an average of four percentage points. “Republicans are no longer responding to polls,” he said.
Johnson also relied on his campaign appearances as evidence of Republican enthusiasm. He said he had visited 21 states and 39 congressional districts over the previous three weeks, focusing on competitive areas where Republicans hope to defeat Democratic incumbents. At those events, he said, “hundreds of people” had shown up, reflecting an energy level comparable to the 2024 election.
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