‘Stubborn’ Inflation Will Require Higher Rates ‘all the Way into 2024’ and Rates ‘Around 5.25 to 5.5%’

On Friday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “The Exchange,” International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva discussed the IMF’s newest report on the U.S. economy and stated that “inflation is stubborn, it is way too high,” which “means that the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, all the way into 2024” and “interest rates around 5.25 to 5.5%” will be needed to get inflation on the right track.

Georgieva said, “Well, what we have seen from the data is that consumer demand is resilient, it is now being boosted by what comes from the strong labor market, and it is [an] increase in incomes. This is, of course, excellent for households, and this is the foundation on which we project fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter growth in ’23 of 1.2%. And we expect this growth momentum to continue in ’24, provided risks are well-managed. Now, the flip side of this positive story is that inflation is stubborn, it is way too high, vis-a-vis the Fed’s target, and that, in our view, means that the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, all the way into 2024. We think that interest rates around 5.25 to 5.5% [are] what will be needed to cool down inflation and put it on the desired track to target.”

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She added that “the picture — including what we got today in PCE data — is that it might be necessary to get a notch higher and then stay a little longer than we initially projected to bring inflation down.”