As Fall begins knocking on the door, Democrats are banking on history to be in their favor as they look forward to the 2026 midterms. But as the 2022 election showed, with Republicans severely underperforming “red wave” predictions, a trend is only a trend until it’s not. 

Traditionally, the out-party does very well in the next election after an opposing party’s president is inaugurated. That happens for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that because they don’t hold power, it’s easy for them to deflect the blame for the problems that will inevitably occur. That’s true even if those problems trace back to policies previously put in place by the out-party. 

A new analysis of voter registration trends is challenging that dynamic, though. According to The New York Times, Democrats saw dramatic declines across the country, including in key battlegrounds like Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Just as importantly, though, the Democratic Party continues to crater in formerly purple states like Florida. And while I’m not predicting Republicans will start winning there anytime soon, you’re even seeing massive drop-offs in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.