Zohran Mamdani is solidifying his position as the frontrunner in New York’s mayoral race, with recent data suggesting a significant lead over his competitors. According to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, Mamdani holds a 44 percent probability of securing between 50 and 60 percent of the vote. If these projections hold true, Mamdani would establish a commanding advantage over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who lags behind substantially in both betting markets and conventional polls. Nonetheless, experts advise that while Mamdani is poised for a strong performance, achieving a true ‘landslide’ victory may still be outside his reach, considering current polling trends.

The significance of New York’s mayoral election extends far beyond the confines of City Hall. The elected mayor will play a crucial role in shaping the city’s approach to pressing challenges such as affordable housing, public safety, and interactions with both President Donald Trump and the national Democratic Party. Political analysts assert that the results could have a considerable impact on the direction of progressive politics in the United States, particularly as Mamdani’s left-leaning agenda gains traction among younger voters. His campaign has received high-profile endorsements from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, underscoring the growing clout of progressive politics in American urban centers.

Despite Mamdani’s apparent lead, betting trends on Polymarket suggest that his margin of victory may be narrower than some predictions imply. The platform indicates a 49 percent chance that he will secure between 40 and 50 percent of the vote, suggesting a win that, while still comfortable, may not be as large as initially anticipated.

According to Politico, a landslide typically refers to a victory margin exceeding 10 percentage points or roughly 60 percent of the popular vote, meaning Mamdani would need to outperform expectations to meet that threshold. Current projections assign just a 5 percent chance that he will secure between 60 and 70 percent of the vote, and a mere 1 percent probability that he will surpass 70 percent.

Traditional polling mirrors the uncertainty reflected in betting markets. A Suffolk University survey places Mamdani at 44 percent, Cuomo at 34 percent, and Republican contender Curtis Sliwa at 11 percent – giving Mamdani a 10-point lead. However, that gap has narrowed sharply from September, when he led Cuomo by 20 points.

Newsweek’s poll tracker, which averages the ten most recent surveys, paints a slightly more optimistic picture for Mamdani, showing him with a 15-point advantage. Despite these fluctuations, analysts say Mamdani’s support has remained remarkably consistent within the low-to-mid 40s, signaling a stable but not overwhelming lead.

Mamdani’s political strength lies in his ability to energize younger and more progressive voters. According to Fox News polling, he commands 78 percent support among ‘very liberal’ New Yorkers, 67 percent among those under 30, and 63 percent among Democrats. He also enjoys strong backing from foreign-born voters, with Patriot Polling reporting that 62 percent of immigrants favor him compared with just 31 percent of US-born residents. His appeal is strongest in Brooklyn and among Muslim, Hindu, and atheist communities, although he continues to trail Cuomo among Jewish and Catholic voters.

Cuomo’s recent gains have come primarily from older and more moderate demographics. The Suffolk University poll shows that 39 percent of Hispanic voters now support Cuomo, up significantly from 22 percent in September. However, Fox News data indicates that his appeal remains limited to moderates and seniors, with 44 percent backing him among voters over 65.

Sliwa, meanwhile, holds a loyal base among Republicans and Trump-aligned voters, especially in Staten Island, where his tough-on-crime message still resonates. As founder of the Guardian Angels, he has leaned on his crime-fighting image and populist appeal to energize conservative supporters. However, his reach remains limited beyond that core, with little traction among independents or younger voters. Analysts say that without broader appeal, Sliwa’s role in the race may be reduced to that of a spoiler rather than a serious contender.

Despite his lead, Mamdani is not immune to voter skepticism. A Victory Insights poll asked voters to rate the three major candidates on a five-point favorability scale, and Mamdani scored an average of 2.99 – just below neutral but ahead of his rivals. Sliwa followed with 2.72, while Cuomo trailed at 2.40, underscoring widespread dissatisfaction across the field.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac University polling found that 43 percent of voters view Mamdani favorably and 35 percent unfavorably, compared with far more negative ratings for both Cuomo and Sliwa. Notably, 75 percent of Mamdani’s supporters say they are ‘highly motivated’ to vote, a figure that dwarfs Sliwa’s 59 percent and Cuomo’s 43 percent.

The New York City mayoral election is scheduled for November 4, and experts say the final days of campaigning could prove decisive. Mamdani’s challenge will be maintaining enthusiasm among progressives while appealing to moderates wary of his more ambitious policies. Cuomo and Sliwa, on the other hand, face the daunting task of closing significant gaps in both polling and voter motivation. With Polymarket odds and national polls aligning behind Mamdani, the race appears his to lose – but the unpredictability of New York politics means no outcome is guaranteed until the final votes are counted.