The conflict in Gaza is disquieting to many. Though a ceasefire was once under discussion, bombings and needless deaths have continued. This has prompted more than two dozen countries calling for an immediate end to what has been labeled “inhumane killings.” The 12-day war between Israel and Iran, coupled with the U.S. bombing Iran’s nuclear installations, further contributed to the volatile Middle East climate. 

Having the most powerful and advanced military technologies in the world act as a strong deterrent for others to not engage. Indeed, the best wars are won when no battles need to be fought. Unfortunately, U.S. engagement in all the fighting is certain to have consequences. Iran’s missile attack on U.S. bases in Qatar may have been a feeble attempt to save face — however, it is a benign threat compared to the vulnerabilities that exist domestically. 

As was seen on Sept. 11, 2001, the risk of carefully orchestrated attacks that use our own infrastructures as weapons against us are always present. Plus, if any Middle East groups want to inflict harm on our soil, they have the luxury of time, waiting until the inevitable lull in our guard. 

Targets of opportunity for attack within the U.S. are ubiquitous.  

Disruptions of the food and water supply are certainly possible. Yet they are sufficiently diverse and distributed that executing such attacks would be challenging.  

There are 54 nuclear power plants containing 94 nuclear power reactors across 28 states. These plants provide more than 18 percent of the nation’s electricity, second only to natural gas (43 percent) and renewables (21 percent) as electricity sources. Several of these plants are near large urban areas, including Chicago; Charlotte, N.C.; Miami; Philadelphia; and Minneapolis, Minn. Attacks that compromise their safety could pose a severe danger and risk to millions of people. 

Any disruptions to the electricity power grid would impact our digital economy and critical infrastructures, with reliable sources of electricity needed to drive financial and transportation systems. 

Recall the July 2024 CrowdStrike debacle, which caused millions of computers to become inoperable. Though not a power disruption, the inability to access computers and information disrupted government operations as well as numerous industrial sectors, including air travel. The reliability of digital systems is generally good. However, they persistently remain vulnerable to cyberattacks, and weakly resilient to rapid recovery. 

This event also highlighted how cyberattacks can be overwhelmingly disruptive and yield significant financial damage. Cyberattacks are typically executed remotely, placing the perpetrators at no personal risk and even camouflaging their identity that can delay their source for some time. 

Protecting against any such attacks is expensive, since the element of surprise is always on the side of the perpetrator. It demands constant vigilance, looking for something that cannot even be well defined until the attack is underway and has caused significant damage, with many false alarms desensitizing warnings against the true threats. Such cyberattack guerilla warfare tactics cannot be protected against using a powerful military. 

The U.S. bombings of Iran’s nuclear installations appear to have had minimal long-term impact, based on intelligence reports, though the president claimed “total obliteration” almost immediately. The most recent intelligence suggests that Iran continues to have significant nuclear capabilities. This attack was eerily similar to what was depicted in the movie “Top Gun: Maverick,” though the Hollywood ending was not the fairytale storyline that emerged in Iran. 

The attacks on Iran also show near-peers like China and Russia the extent of U.S. military capabilities, both its strengths and limitations. Such information, coupled with their own intelligence, ultimately makes us all more vulnerable and less secure. 

There is no obvious end game for the Middle East conflict. Israel’s goal to eliminate Iran’s nuclear warhead capabilities drove that war effort. The Israeli attacks against Hamas militants in Gaza continue to create an environment that is killing innocent Palestinians. 

Iranians, Palestinians and Israelis all deserve more respect and safety during these volatile times. France’s intent to recognize a Palestinian state makes a bold and courageous statement that will likely be followed by others. Not surprisingly, the administrations in both the U.S. and Israel criticized their intentions.  

The U.S. would be wise to do nothing more to further escalate the Middle East conflicts. The strongest player in a negotiation typically needs to use little force to achieve their objectives. Contributing to this ongoing conflict with military force will sow seeds of dissent that will eventually reach our shores. Full-scale diplomacy as the centerpiece of negotiations is critical to achieve the desired objectives.  

In our digital economy, cyberattacks that impact nuclear plants, the power grid and even the air system are real threats that require constant vigilance to protect. Of course, the best protections are achieved by fostering good international relationship and mutually beneficial economic agreements — something that our nation is woefully short on right now. 

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a computer science professor in the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he uses his expertise in risk-based analytics to address problems in public policy.